AL3 (ASX) General Discussion

Originally posted by JØRGANON: ↑

***Disjointed lazy rant rant cbf with references.

Andy isn't a business man he's a scientist and an engineer (mainly metalurgical scientist), his last sale is pretty old news... Dude wanted to take some well deserved profits IMO not a big deal. Previous sale was a direct transfer of 3mil shares to Goumas.

Only reason she is falling is because there is another dry spell of news... Expectations of 40mil in contracts (recently alluded to) to flow through but haven't seen a contract worth more than 2~mil and only 1 machine sale into a new industry since the setup of the US facility. Need to see something larger in the form of a significant manufacturing contract of 10mil+ or multiple machine sales packaged into one deal to a significant player. Still too much uncertainty about how she will monetize her IP and what her numbers will look like at scale.

First it was contract manufacturing then it was machine sales and recurring revenue through software licencing, servicing and other support services. Now it's both but with more of an emphasis on machine sales and custom turn key solutions? She initially offered on demand printing services with talk of remote on demand printing services after scanning the inventory of a customer to reduce the burden of maintaining large inventories of spare parts (very old news only vets will remember).This seems to have been swept under the rug with a greater emphasis now placed on machine sales, reccuring revenue streams resulting from them, the next iteration of her technology with a more complex machine that increase deposition rates and larger custom built machines like the Austal Machine that can print 35m cubed being completed recently or sometime soon per the recent announcement.

****My guess is that there is some sort of IP issue combined with the ongoing certification ordeal. First, AML has achieved DNV Approved Maritime Manufacture, Lloyd's Register, AS 9100D and ISO 9001 certification and over the last 2 years has begun certifying various new and IP protected alloys such as Andy's aluminium scandium alloy and other pre-existing alloys with the US Navy through the metal characterisation contracts. Despite all of this I am pretty sure she is still in a larger process of certifying her whole IP and her machines (under the guidance of two significant BWX employees) while still having to certify and test each and every part that she produces for the US Navy E.G. the recent tail piece component that must undergo extensive testing before being fitted to a sub... (*** This was also illuded to by Sean in the recent Alan Cohler interview). While this is painstaking the end result will be something hard to compete with because any competeing technology will have to undergo the same BS to be certified.

Second, Recently Ruckerson mentioned a reluctance of some players to work with them and a need to force people to cooperate with them. I was thinking maybe there is some sort of IP issue here where they are unable to print a component that they did not design without permission (is it okay to 3D scan something you didn't design and then print it?). Perhpas what ruckerson was referring to here is this need for AML3D to get access to the designs and specifications of various components that the US Navy would like printed but there is some sort of issue getting access. Recently I saw a mention in an article that AML3D was having her design drawings looked over for final approval which I assume was for this recent tail piece component. I'm pretty sure this speaks to the issue somewhat, is AML now involved in the actual design of components that she is printing and is this resulting from the previously mentioned potential problem?

Either way there is clearly a significant demand for her services and her capability is IMO extremely valuable and will at least be aquired for a pretty penny at somepoint if there are issues in the commercialisation process. Ruckerson recently illuded to having her prototype and test the printing of hull segments for vessels and she has demonstrated the ability to destroy lead times so there is clear value here it just remains murky and there must be some unerlying issues still present that a slowing down her potential contract pipeline.

IMO the plans to make small moves to expand into the UK are premature unless there is some sort of guarantee that whoever is interested is willing to spend some coin as soon as machines arrive. IMO the US facility is yet to be justified so they better stay fiscally conservative and focussed on securing some revenue from the US Navy first. Although the AU government in the form of the defence minister, the AUKUS forum and the submarine agency have recognised her achievements she has belly button fluff to show for it and its astounding that she hasnt received any form of investment from the AU government despite their willingness to throw billions at the US defence industry and the bill for subs, frigates, drones, destroyers etc without any soverieng sustainment capacity and a clear lakc of free capacity in the US. The most significant thing to come out of AU atm is the nozzle assembly that im hoping is a jet engine or rocket because something needs to come from that space soon. The agreement with boeing has resulted in nothing because unless the nozzle assembly is a joint project with boeing and CSIRO its literally worthless right now. A break into the aerospace industry would be good for the SP like it was with the utilities contract.

Long story short... It's the same old story with her that there are a ton of irons in the fire but nothing significant has been ironed out yet. Plenty of potential but nothing meaty or sexyt in writing yet. The previous year's revenue growth was awesome but there isn't confidence in her ability to sustain these numers let alone improve on them without more signicicant contracts. Costs are fairly low, reasonable and justifiable investments into staffing and new facility have been made and R&D is about to bear fruit. Finally have a signiciant war chest with 33-35mil in the bank but the SP is going to shit the bed whenever there is a lul with no new sexy news. Think of a patient monitor beeping everytime there is a new machine sale or 1-2mil manufacturing contract with the Navy.

Personally, I think there is huge value here and thats why I will continue to accumulate sub 14 cents to hopefully double my holding by the next significant news cycle.

Not financial advice, DYOR, GLTAH.

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wise move mate.
to support my thesis i added extra 50k shares on AL3 long term hold.
my initial entry is at 0.195 and will be accumulating at this point of time when sentiment and others turn more impatient

No.	Vol.	Price($)
21	634680	14.0¢

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634680

14.0¢

Price($)	Vol.	No.
14.5¢	680188	6

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No.

14.5¢

680188

No.	Vol.	Price($)
20	629680	0.140
12	361599	0.135
5	127682	0.130
4	90000	0.125
3	50391	0.120

No.

Vol.

Price($)

629680

0.140

361599

0.135

127682

0.130

90000

0.125

50391

0.120

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.145	528554	4
0.150	170402	9
0.155	258436	2
0.160	315510	6
0.165	197200	4

Price($)

Vol.

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0.145

528554

0.150

170402

0.155

258436

0.160

315510

0.165

197200

(20min delay)
Last 14.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $77.97M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
14.5¢	15.0¢	14.0¢	$116.8K	806.8K

wise move mate.to support my thesis i added extra 50k shares on...

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