So using 85% recovery in a standard antimony flow sheet, it would require a JORC contained tonnes amount of 24.31 tonnes at todays prices ($A 48,400) to have $1 billion of recoverable metal acting as the revenue pool to draw your costs from for an operation.
currently, with no resource upgrade we have 15.6 tonnes, so we are a hot chance to go close to 24.31 with the pending upgrade and a for sure chance to get that number if we included the 71 other targets… so I feel like $1 billion in potential revenue is base case.
now considering we have a potential toll treating option up the road which would mean minimal capex to take from the revenue pool, it comes down to opex and a toll treating charge.
not sure how that looks but considering that prices have doubled and that we have the highest grade undeveloped antimony project in Aus (which is best suited for a toll treat option), I think it’s fair to say that opex and toll treating charges would consititute about a 40% of the revenue pool at most.
this leaves a heck of a margin to discount cashflow for…. $600m left over as a guess, discounted over say 10 years? Pre tax NPV of $400m? current MC is 20m or so for a potential easy execution project.
Plenty to entice LRV , plenty more resource upside to that accounted for above so that NPV has legs.
even if we had to build a fit for purpose antimony mine, we could be left with $300m NPV IMO, noting opex falls.
now what if prices double from here? Or the we triple the resource over the next year??
all super high level numbers^ and for discussion purposes.
boy
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