General Discussions, page-17786

I just went back and had a look at the quarterly just to see what production date is possible, so I didn't pick this up and should have as lost track - they now have $140 million cash in bank. With the $185 million Commonwealth loan they certainly have the cash now for implementing Stage 1 (and/or an increased version of Stage 1) assuming some cost overrun from the initial A$204 million capex. So looking at that, some binding offtakes and away this will go. Suspect they got a good idea already of where things are at in the BAM they are developing. They must be seriously confident that they are going production, noting if I recall the PEPR had a statement around need to go mining within 2 years of the PEPR approval. That is my recollection, so correct this if it is wrong to others.

Time will tell, but next few months will be interesting. Obviously the market wants to know the expansion scenario as well as what is EBITDA here forecasted as well as NPV and IRR. Be mindful, when a company transitions on the path from explorer to miner, pre mining, SP transitions from a correlation with NPV to one of NPV/EBITDA equivalence, and obviously in mining becomes EDIT/DA based. Just have to look at LTR to understand that and others. I think the market is trying to work out what % of EBITDA/NPV it should be trading at pre mining (as I suspect market is not pricing this on a % of NPV anymore albeit shorting is occuring and to be clear the issue with shorting is not % of total SOI but shorting as a % of shares traded on a given day). My only concern at this stage is where the CR shares have gone to, as I have never been a fan of Cannacord.

All IMO