1. Summary: I have been thinking about your post and decided to do some numbers. I wouldn't mind people checking these and providing a view in due course. In summary whilst a battery may have as much (or if not slightly more) graphite than lithium, the actual graphite cost in the battery is significantly less than lithium.
2. Lithium cost A while ago I did a conversion around how much input cost an EV has in terms of lithium - that post is here and it is significant - refer Post #:66330003
If your battery size in an EV is 50kWh, then effectively you need 45kg LCE (50*0.9) in it. So 1 tonne LCE is equivalent to 22 EV batteries. So if your cost of LCE is say US$80,000, then per battery, looking at a LCE input cost of around US$3,600. This is before we cost all the other minerals in the battery, and the remainder of the EV itself, and that is also a key. For example, there is more graphite in an EV than lithium, from recollection, noting again there is other minerals as well - obviously more information/analysis in the embedded posts above.
Taking this to 6% grade spodumene, in effect gets you 2.93 vehicles (22 EVs/7.5 tonne conversion). So, if you cost of 6% grade spodumene is say US$6000 per tonne, then the spodumene alone is US$2,040 per EV, which obviously needs to be grossed up when it becomes LCE (i.e. the processing cost to get to LCE), At US$3,000 per tonne 6% grade spodumene input cost (before processing to LCE) is US$1020. 3. Links on graphite prices:
Basically, synthetic graphite is highly energy intensive hence the environmental and CO2 concerns of producing it. I talked about this previously in Synthetic graphite prices are opaque but appear north of US$10,000 per tonne. I have seen prices in my google search above US$20,000 per tonne. It would be interesting what others find.
I will use US$1000 per tonne for graphite concentrate.
Low quality graphite is not good in producing concentrate or PSG, hence why RNU can be in the right space with its good quality resource. On China's graphite resources - refer Post #:51384197
PSG: I will use US$4000 per tonne, as I suspect as supple > demand prices will be above the US$3000 per tonne we seeing around now. As well as teh fact you want to be transitioning synthetic graphite out as well, and the fact you can ask for more PSG price given where the graphite synthetic price is at.
Others can change the estimates however they like. This is a discussion forum so good to have the discussion. As I am guessing
4. Graphite cost in EVs
Doing a similar exercise for graphite now to the one I did for lithium, noting
1. You need 1kg graphite (i.e. equivalent spherical basis) per kWh. 2. Average battery size is 50 kWh - that is your NCA and NCM batteries 8/2/2 - this embedded post uses 60 kWh but for those numerically inclined can convert to 50kWh battery size Post #:56985829 3. The mix of synthetic versus spherical graphite is 50/50 - this post explains this -Post #:51768438.
Using the above, in effect if the anode in the EV was was 50/50 synthetic/PSG, one tonne of spherical graphite would meet the anode needs of 40 EVs, with the cost of spherical graphite in the EV amounting to just A$133. If there was no synthetic graphite just double the numbers in yellow for PSG/concentrate, still not as significant as lithium need. But still a cost savings over synthetic graphite.
So as to the question, maybe China doesn't care around the environmental cost and CO2 cost of producing synthetic graphite (since its production is energy intensive) or the environmental cost of producing concentrate/PSG from poor quality graphite.
There is a cost saving of not using synthetic graphite to EV producers, despite the cost of graphite in batteries not been as significant as lithium, but it is in the environmental benefits of replacing synthetic graphite that the benefits come from IMO IMO IMO - refer What Is Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Investing? (investopedia.com).
RNU simply needs to get their project to market, because as EV production grows I doubt that even the Chinese would want the environmental costs of producing synthetic graphite or PSG from poor quality graphite escalate - EV demand is going to require a hell of a lot of graphite as I indicated in Post #:56985829 so changes will happen as environmental concerns with poor quality graphite and synthetic graphite grow IMO (even in China) .
Ultimately Europe/USA/Japan/Korea do care around ESG - What is ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance)? (corporatefinanceinstitute.com) - so they are the markets RNU should initially be targeting IMO IMO. If people are going to harp on about environmental issues, then producing EVs as environmentally freindly as possible is the key. And to repeat there is still a cost saving to EV battery makers andcar producers of using good quality graphite concentrate in producing PSG for EV applications.
Given cost, one thing for sure, graphite will not IMO be transitioned out of EV batteries anytime soon - it is a low cost material so it will remain in batteries IMO.
Interesting what others think. Done over a good stubby of VB as it makes me think. But maybe I need a few more to think more clearer.
Post is for discussion as would be interested what others think. Hopefully, others have better conversions/maths than me.
(20min delay)