RNU 5.38% 9.8¢ renascor resources limited

I have a small holding; the value of which has gotten smaller...

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    I have a small holding; the value of which has gotten smaller over the past few weeks.

    I'm no technical analysis guy. Actually, I have almost no clue. However, I do like to compare the share price graph of companies I hold against its peers in the industry when the price is falling or rising unusually quickly. RNU's share price seems to have followed its peers very closely all year, then fallen off a cliff since the 1st August. Down 42% in that time. Sure, Syrah and other competitors have fallen somewhat, but the RNU price fall has been rapid and jarring. I can understand a fall, but I can't understand this level of panic. I am fairly new to small cap companies and mining, so perhaps it's kind of normal. Was a lot of hype built into RNU's price (a la Chalice)? Maybe some level of optimism I suppose, but hardly anything too ridiculous. I bought part of the company, not a share trade. The story hasn't chanced and I will not be selling. It's still not a great feeling to see the price fall virtually every day this month. It's not a normal human reaction to sit and do nothing in the face of supposed trouble.

    I noticed today that whenever a legitimate order was completed, it usually went through at the higher price (eg. 11.5 cents) however, then a sale at 11.25 cents for just one or two shares would go through. I can't understand the logic to this. Why bother selling 22 cents worth of shares? I can only assume it is some type of algorithm trading, but what the purpose is, I do not know. They surely can't be legitimate transactions.

    I've been doing a lot of reading about graphite. It seems there are benefits to both synthetic AND natural graphite and that battery manufacturers blend the two together to get optimal performance. Nice. And obviously the long term demand issues towards 2030 which have not magically disappeared in the past six weeks. I've read a lot too about pricing for graphite disconnecting from the obviously manipulated price out of China. It stands to reason that the west's appetite for D.R. Congo cobalt and P.R. China graphite is coming to an end. If it's made from cooking petroleum, heated with thermal coal, in a country which means us harm, there is no way western governments, socially aware corporations, and end-users will accept this for very much longer. There will have to be a two-tier pricing system. I am not worried at all about the long term graphite requirement. Graphite prices have disconnected from lithium, which apparently is unusual. Surely there will be a reversion to the mean at some point.

    Something I am curious about though and am not trying to down ramp. Does the size of our reserve really matter at this point? I mean, it could double, triple, 10x, etc. but we've already got the biggest reserve outside of Africa and it will last for decades. If our current reserve values the company at $355m and that is supressed due to low graphite prices, increasing that reserve further surely just gives us more low-value graphite in the ground. The size is really just academic at this point.

    I was reading last night about a small ASX-listed graphite company in WA and downloaded a YouTube video to watch later about their company. Apparently the size of the resource and grades was only a little below RNU's (not including today's announcement) yet the market cap is apparently only about $20m. I started to wonder, does this mean we are 10x over-valued and shares should be at 1 cent (ludicrous) or other companies (including Syrah) are under-valued; or does it mean nothing at all? What I love about RNU is we have our approvals in place and are located in SA. Both are huge for me. There are a number of other small cap graphite plays on the ASX and TSX spruiking their deposits. I guess what I am really asking is: How much value would the approvals and completed feasibility studies be worth to our share price? Can I assume that our market cap deserves to be higher now than a couple of years ago due to this de-risking element and being closer to production? RNU is surely more than just an abstract idea on a PPT presentation, and a collection of (currently in-low-demand) minerals under the ground near Arno Bay.

    Apologies for the long post. I sit and think and type the ideas I've been thinking of for the past few days. This probably could have been much shorter, but I struggle to think of just a few dot points and then press *send*. Good luck to all holders and thank you to anyone who has read this far
 
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