"We all know how we got here. The point now is that the entire...

"We all know how we got here. The point now is that the entire global EV industry can not rely on China to be the sole supplier of the crucial inputs required to produce both anodes and cathodes."

agreed 100%, this is not in question, other than the punishment bit.

The statement I'm making is that after considering a possible result of these policies and how it will effect Oz/IRA/FTA compliant critical mineral players is that they will only affect (yes, it's not a typo) markets in those jurisdictions and promote local production (mineral processing, manufacturing etc) but will not effect China unless they can out compete or have points considered by consumers as significant advantage. On this last point, consider Tesla VS BYD - BYD are right up there and Teslta are now using automated driver functions as primary difference (advantage) even though most jurisdictions do not permit it - yet.

Whilst it's great the west is waking up and the IRS/FTA is kicking in, we have to also accept that unconditional and indefinite subsidies to these industries are not sustainable. Companies like RNU are not sustainable on the US markets alone considering it is not the only player in this field or in the west, there are also North American companies vying for this market. This is my reasoning for concluding that RNU's main market will probably be Sth Korean. As mentioned, I cannot imagine the Sth Korean producers only servicing FTA/IRA compliant companies. Hence why I think those policies will have minimal effect on RNU or the long duration between phasing out/reduction of synthetic graphite in the anode.

It's only time will tell and it wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong in my life. It's best when we invest where we understand both positive and negative arguments, the important thing is for people/investors to consider what the IRA/FTA could mean on a global scale, not just in the US or Australia. I happen to believe we are too hung up on the positives alone.

Again, from a military perspective I get it; from the consumer perspective, how many people are prepared (or able) to pay a premium for a product simply because it's not made in China?

What will have the most affect is China's stance on export of these materials. Historically, China will not seed it's dominance in any market and US FTA/IRA compliance is US alone at this time. Really, the largest single driver for RNU is diversification and strengthening of supply chains to include reliable partners.

Anyway, I've harped on enough and probably won't mention it again, a debate is healthy so happy to have it..or not .Also, my perspective is not fixed (and never will be), it will go with what sounds logical or plausible or proven, so please continue the debate.

C


Why does reply play up on HC?