Thanks
@Investor^Pro for the link, it is good to seek different info sources over time, and stress test our investment theses.
My lazy swipe might be harsh, but with this second article, I think inadvertently you've channelled Britney and
oops, done it again!
The most realistic of Toyota's plans to enter the EV, not 'electrified' market are their three liquid electrolyte Li-ion chemistries (Li-ion performance, LFP & Hi performance Li-ion), with potential release dates of 2026, 2026-27 & 2027-28 respectively.
I'd assume pretty confidently these would have traditional graphite anodes.
Cost is key.
Their Li-ion performance aims for 20% cost reduction than currently available.
Their Li-ion high performance aims for a further 10% reduction.
The article mangled the LFP figures saying '
Toyota's predictions state it could cost 40 percent'.
40% of the total cost, 40% less???
The SSB program has two phases, the first with range on par with the Li-ion HP.
You can bet the SSB cost will be way higher, and will take years to scale up.
I'd recommend listening to the 2-Aug-2024
Joe Lowry's Global Lithium Podcast, Episode 192 with Rho-Motion's Iola Hughes.
53:30: Solid state batteries
Realistically we're still looking timelines continuously pushed back, ultimately what was 2027 is now 2030, mass market maybe 2035. There's continued issues with cycle life, with the cost, difficulties scaling, technology - they're all barriers.
But what you also have is that solid state batteries are chasing a moving target. You can't compare the idea of a SSB with an LFP cell of today. You've got to compare it with an LFP cell, or high nickel/graphite/silicon cell of 2030, of 2035.
Ultimately what you're going to be doing is chasing down a technology that is continuously improving, continuously getting cheaper in terms of at least the manufacturing processes (the raw material picture is obviously up for debate), so it's not going to be as simple as overnight it comes through and floods the market.
Where we do see it perhaps having more of a place is those kind of harder to electrify markets where you do really need that extra boost in energy density. So things like planes for example where you're looking at the light weight.
On reflection, perhaps lazy is too strong; apologies.
The tone from the two recent articles you've posted is IMO 'alarmed'.
It's an easy state of mind to fall into at present with the sector in the dumps, mainstream media hyping bad news and incumbent automakers struggling to qualify for EV semi's let alone finals, spoiling the picture with disinformation.
On that front, Toyota have bad form in the non-ICE space as your article touches on, first focussing on hydrogen fuel cells, pivoting to electrified (hybrids basically) and now promising to be ichi ban in EV.
All the while
dissing BEV's, sowing scientifically illiterate
disinformation and
fighting fuel efficiency standards!
To see them
still using fuel cell Mirai's at the 2024 Olympics and running that Barry of an ad 'because it's a Toyota' to fool the sheep is a disgrace.
Look past those MSM alarmist red herrings and I reckon you'll find RNU are positioning well to build a rock solid, long term sustainable business, unlike say other 'exciting' Aussie hopefuls such as Magnis (big on hype, debt and dodginess).
Perhaps DC will surprise and pull a Sicona update out of the bag to satisfy the lack of apparent progress?
RNU/Sicona graphite/silicon anodes could end up in Toyota's three liquid electrolyte Li-ion chemistries
(20min delay)