@pa-one I always thought you were based in SA or supported the...

@pa-one I always thought you were based in SA or supported the Power in the AFL with your screen handle. No need to confirm or deny your location. The Melbourne bus pic surprised me

@Investor^Pro I totally get the negativity, mate. I feel the same about RNU some days. It's hard to look at the situation rationally. It just sucks and nobody knows where the price, or mine development goes from here.

Some positive points....
1. If Siviour doesn't get built with all that's going for it, what would? Which graphite project anywhere in the world is more appealing than ours? If ours isn't built, that assumes there is never another graphite mine built anywhere outside China ever again. Unlikely.
2. We're in the bottom 25% of the cost curve, with the second largest deposit in the world, close to surface, largely permitted, government endorsed, in a tier one juristiction, close to infrastructure, a low-pollution extraction method, and with renewable mains power.
3. Management is conservative with the $110m. Sure, a binding offtake agreement could be signed -- which signs-away future upside and locks in today's low prices. They are going slow and can afford to with $5m in interest a year.
4. We've got $185m in a grant, and half the demonstration plant paid for with another grant.
5. As per the recent presentation, more milestones and news is on the way.
6. Something that isn't discussed here is that with the graphite price so low, other projects will not get built either. Excellent!
7. The low graphite prices also discourages producers economising (using less graphite), or experimenting with other substances, or recycling. With lithium prices low, there's little incentive to move away from existing, proven production methods or materials either. Current low prices are a barrier to entry for new mines AND a barrier to innovation. There's no reason to do either.

8. According to ChatGPT -- which I do not trust for investment wisdom, but I find is excellent for explaining complex topics -- "Solid-state technology is worth monitoring, but traditional lithium-ion chemistry, reliant on graphite, is likely to remain entrenched for now and into the near future. With this outlook, I'd feel relatively secure as a graphite investor or developer". Apparently they are complicated and expensive to produce, sensitive to temperature changes, and the battery components can degrade faster. "For widespread use in consumer devices or affordable EVs, it may take a decade or more as production costs come down and manufacturing processes improve.In short, solid-state batteries have the potential to replace lithium-ion batteries eventually, especially in sectors where safety, energy density, and longevity are critical. But until these challenges are addressed, both types of batteries will likely coexist, each filling different niches."

9. The CCP is obviously over-producing in order to maintain market share and discourage projects like our from going ahead. The low price of oil is making production of synthetic graphite cheaper than it would be with oil at > US$100 a barrel. At some stage, the CCP is going to over-play its hand and suspend export licences for graphite or something equally as silly that helps us. They always do. Or even Beijing will run out of capacity to over-produce as battery demand increases.

10. Rather than seeing Trump as an EV threat, I think he sees the China threat clearly. Nobody in the west wants to be reliant on China for refined commodities. So I'm back to my first point -- if not Siviour , then which project(s)? Also, there's the 2027 I.R.A mandates which car manufacturers are all aware of. China is a Foreign Entity of Concern. Which makes me wonder why the South Korea and Japan aren't beating down our door to get Siviour built. Perhaps they quietly are.

11. At the current price, RNU shares are either a sure fire ten-bagger, or a total waste of money. My average price is 17 cents. I can imagine a scenario where we are at 69 cents. $175 million market cap (with $110m in cash) to $1.75b market cap. Sure thing. Our NPV is $1.5B.

All of this again takes me back to point #1. The value or importance of our project has not changed. Only the share price has. I can understand why people aren't buying RNU with the ugly price graph. I don't know who would be selling at the moment though. My last parcel was at 7.9 cents. Buying more feels like throwing good money away, chasing bad! I'm sure that won't be my last purchase though. Maybe I am just trying to convince myself, but I see no reason to sell and every reason to stick with my original plan and hold RNU. I am letting this play itself out, but admittedly it's not pretty.