General Discussions, page-32067

Hi, @Num1fifa. I think I get the gist of what you're saying here.

Yes, there's a risk Siviour doesn't progress. And yes, the graphite price is currently lower than we'd like it to be. I refer to David's Noosa conference speech on 18 July this year. It's available through the Renascor Resources website. For reference:



David said (@ 1:25), we have a cash balance of approximately $113m and "this will fund *about half* our initial capital requirement for the upstream operation".

He goes on to say, (@ 1:40) "we're really quite leveraged now to the graphite price and we [the RNU share price] seems to move up and down in relation to the graphite price ". So you're correct that there's a correlation. Of course there is! It's the same for any resources company.

We were up 9% on Friday at one stage but that shows the effect of two significant purchases -- mid-morning and mid-afternoon. Our very own Mallyrock topping up again, maybe!



I think it was Buffet who said high IQ people make the worst investors because they always find reasons to not invest. They analyse the opportunity to death. RNU isn't without risks. However in my mind it's the best graphite project, and at an outstanding price, anywhere in the world. There is always, for any stock, a bear case and a reason to sell / not buy. If you listen to it, you'd never buy anything. Interestingly, once a share price has doubled, and no longer cheap, the naysayers are usually the loudest cheerleaders telling everyone to buy.

Graphite is the largest component of a rechargeable battery with very few ex-China, or ex-Africa suppliers. There's a very good case to buy -- both macro, and company specific. The couple of pests who hijack the conversation here with repetitive and pedantic posts seem like very intelligent people, with just enough knowledge to sound convincing, who have decided to take the glass-half-empty view. What their motivations are for their anti-RNU campaign, I have no idea. Yes, they can sound persuasive; and may even eventually be proven correct. For the sake of sanity, the 'ignore' button is your friend. Essentially, the only two questions to ask one's self is simply: 1. Does the commodity price need rise?; and 2. Does Siviour get built?

In large capex, extractive industries, you make your money buying when the commodity is unloved and the shares are almost being given away. In my mind, RNU represents this opportunity. Mind you, I first bought at 30 cents and have been chasing this lower for two years. So I have a perfect record of failure!

The negative view with RNU specifically, and graphite generally, is an easy case to make. But the situation can change quickly. What is clear is a higher graphite price will solve a lot of problems for us. We have enough money in the bank to tread water indefinitely while the mine and downstream plant is designed, approvals for the Bolivar site are approved, offtakes negotiated, engineers are engaged, etc. Without this cash balance, my confidence would be much lower than it is.

In the meantime our share price is highly speculative and risky. My view is that a conservative position size is crucial. As is the patience of a saint, and the intestinal constitution of a Thai street food connoisseur.

As for demand and commodity price predictions, they're nice to read but often are pretty useless. I wouldn't be surprised if, in five years' time, a shortfall of graphite is double what is currently projected. Or less than half. Look at the major banks and their Senior Economists' interest rate cut predictions over the past 12 months. All over the place. Totally worthless.

Good lucky with your investment.