I see today a number of replies to the resident non-holding Renascor downramper. The pattern here is plain enough. Pretend to be seeking information, and ask a lot of obscure questions to muddy the waters. Not accept any information given by other posters. Keep hijacking the conversation and hammering away at the same points for months and months. I suspect the motivation is a feeling of superiority in trying to prove everyone wrong who is keen on RNU's prospects rather than short selling. It certainly isn't a genuine search for information or respectful discussion. One never wins an argument with these people. No matter how well-worded the reply, they just circle back a few days later with the same couple of points reformulated and reworded in an attempt to suck more holders into their world and disrupt genuine discussion. It is massively egotistical. Usually they know just enough about the topic to sound convincing and spread uncertainty and doubt. There is no reason to not have these types of users permanently on ignore. I read his points months ago and am glad I did. I'm always keen to hear diverse views. Not worth the time toll, or emotional toll dealing with it though. He's been on my extensive 'ignore' list for many months.
I've made my decision to buy infrequent small-ish parcels, have been doing that over the past two years, and will absolutely not be selling my part ownership in this company. If it succeeds, I will do very, very well. If it fails, the loss will not be fatal for my overall portfolio. An appropriate position size in my portfolio is crucial though.
There are certainly enough reasons to be negative on buying RNU already! The graphite price is terrible, we have no off-take agreements in place, there's the synthetic graphite threat -- cheaper to make it with a low oil price, and FID has not (officially) been reached. The negatives are well known and factored into our share price. However, at 6.5 cents, the shares are precisely twice as good value as they were at 13 cents, and 4 x the value they were at 26 cents. Looking back through the financial records on Commsec, the shares on issue has increased tenfold since 2016. However, if I (admittedly) cherry pick the last three years: 2022 -- 2.15 billion, 2023 -- 2.54b., 2024 -- 2.54b. My part ownership in the venture hasn't been diluted much.
We have $110m in the bank -- $5m a year in interest, and enough to cover General and Administrative expenses and keep the company running, while we wait for the graphite price to improve and get every possible "I" dotted, and "T" crossed. We could tread water like this forever. It's an envious position for any mining junior to be in.
In the meantime, we have the macro thematic headwinds of Chinese graphite domination (~95% market control) and a rapidly increasing demand profile; and the company-specific advantage of location, bottom 25% of the cost curve, permits in place, etc. RNU is like one of those seeds that sit in the desert for for many years, with all the genetic information and nutrients inside; ready to go. It's just waiting for the right conditions -- a heavy rain -- so that it can sprout and bloom. Even just through dumb luck, and buying towards the bottom of the natural commodity cycle, resources companies with either strong cashflow or a world-class deposit, can go from unloved, to loved, quite quickly and good money can be made. I don't even need to be right about China or Trump.
I note too, that Walkabout Resources, the insolvent ASX-listed graphite company is based in Tanzania. Four of the ten biggest graphite resources in the world are also based in Tanzania. This episode would do nothing to instil confidence in potential financial backers or offtake partners to take on sovereign risk in Tanzania when the # 2 project on the list is in South Australia and the upstream mine is beyond FID ready.
It became clear, reading between the lines, of the Chairman and MD's speeches at the AGM that our weak share price is linked to the weak graphite price; and that the mine is unlikely to get built until that price turns around. Of course, the cure for low prices is always low prices. This was the most explicit I've heard DC say that without a graphite price turn-around, FID is unlikely to happen. Oh well, there is plenty to do in the meantime with the pre-EPC work, demonstration plant, and the down-stream PSG plant at Bolivar. Thanks to the guy who went there and took pictures, by the way.
Apologies if I have posted this before:
I have searched online and asked AI apps where graphite would sit in this chart and/or which commodity its performance would mirror, but have come up short due to the historically opaque nature of graphite pricing. Even ChatGPT has failed me. I expect our project to succeed on its own merits without the instance of a sudden Chinese export ban, however looking at a long term horizon, I suspect that sudden geo-political winds will also blow in our favour eventually.
@Mallyrock Mate, you wrote a few days ago that Renascor Resources is currently in discussions with "at least five companies regarding offtake agreements". I read and watch everything I can get my hands on about this company but have not seen this specific. Are you making an educated guess due to the small number of giant cap north Asian companies which would be end users of our product (Mitsubishi, Hyandai, Panasonic, etc.) or have you seen/read this information somewhere recently? I would be very curious to know where this "at least five" is from. I was very surprised when I read that and had to re-read the sentence to make sure I hadn't read it wrong
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