A few points, and apologies for the length of the post....
I'm as unhappy with the on-paper loss as anyone, and disappointed with RNU's performance. It's particularly disappointing with the ASX200 being at all-time highs, and the opportunity costs lost for my money invested in RNU stock. However I don't blame DC or the company. The RNU retail investor level of dissatisfaction (and a lot of it is totally understandable) is totally normal at this stage of any mining project. A rebound in the graphite price would solve a lot of problems.
There is no point investing in a narrative with a 3-5 year time frame if your investing horizon is 3-5 months. Unfortunately this will take as long as it's going to take to play out.
I suspect the negative non-holders are holders of other junior graphite stocks, and it's in their interests to run down the Siviour project and spread negativity. Part of this is to reaffirm their decision to invest in another wannabe graphite producer stock which they see as superior.
Much like any type of blackmail, it's not so much the sending of intimate photos of the CEO with his young secretary/PA that does the damage, but the
threat of doing so. Once the pics are released, the damage is done. The Chinese have tried to get around this by not banning export entirely, or even making threats to ban it, but requiring so-called
export licences and putting up obstacles which can change on a whim. They did it with our lobsters a year or two ago by claiming anti-dumping protection; and that the produce was defective in some way. Letting stuff rot on the wharf. I suspect the jig is up though. There is no way the Japanese and Korean manufacturers (our future customers) want to have the Chinese government holding the threat of export bans over their heads. Where that leaves RNU, time will tell. It
should put us in an excellent position. However there hasn't been a positive, constructive, meaningful announcement for a long time. Just the usual presentations. I'd just about expect the binding off-take agreements to start flooding in. But I won't be holding my breath. I am glad on one hand that DC isn't signing-away production at low prices, but on the other hand, the lack of BOAs makes me feel uneasy given what is falling into place.
We probably could have made our lives a lot easier by only mining the graphite, and then simply putting it on a ship at Whyalla or Port Adelaide (i.e. a bulk commodity like coal or iron ore) and getting the raw product out of here. The Bolivar downstream site has increased the complexity and cost by an order of magnitude, but is an integral part of our project. However if all goes ahead, I suspect it will be worth the aggravation.
I believe our
biggest positive is having almost all the Tier One jurisdiction permits in place for both the Arno Bay and Bolivar sites. Our government has made the development of mining projects impossibly difficult with the red and green tape required. Companies like Woodside Energy and BHP seem to be actively avoiding Australia in favour of more mining-friendly jurisdictions in the US and South America. Sandfire Resources went from first discovery of the Moteo copper deposit in Botswana in 2016, to purchasing the junior explorer which discovered the deposit, FID,
full permitting, building the mine, and first production, in seven years. Twenty years. Minimum, in Australia. It's the permitting green lights, and existing infrastructure (sealed roads, water and electricity) which I like most about our project.
Regarding the size of the Siviour deposit... I believe the deposit is open and nowhere near fully explored. You have to stop at some point, because the shareholders aren't going to fund tens of millions on a never-ending drilling programme when you've already proved the resource is big enough for a multi-decade project. It would be dilutive and irresponsible to drill halfway to Port Lincoln just to be able to show, "we've found the limits of the deposit!". They're running a mining company, not Charles Sturt on horseback trying to prove where the Murray River flows to.
I'm well familiar with the Chinese views on Africa, and Chinese business practices, having myself lived in mainland China for a number of years. The lack of pandas in Africa would partly be due to the Chinese attitude toward African countries, and specifically towards non-Caucasian / non-Chinese people. It would also be due to a lack of infrastructure, and confidence in those countries' ability to take care of the animals. It may be a nationalistic view, but I suspect the Japanese and Koreans would rather be dealing with a nearby military ally in Australia and established trading partner, than far-away sub-Saharan Africa.
In case anyone is confused about the "Croc file" reference earlier,
Croc file, as mentioned on this page, is/was apparently a relentless and strong advocate of the failed Walkabout Resources. I have neither the time, energy, nor inclination to do a deep dive into the WKT Hot Copper pages, but his name comes up time and time again for supposedly "pumping and ramping WKT". Comments such as, "People lost big money and will have a horrible Christmas because YOU influenced them with YOUR constant positivity of WKT. I hope you're proud of yourself", etc.
I hope my posts do not influence anyone in any way, because I really have no specialised knowledge on graphite, finance, RNU or the Siviour project. This is a high risk investment, which mercifully occupies a minor part of my portfolio. I appreciate measured and analytical comments on Hot Copper, and have little time for the "to the moon, gap up today, boys" nonsense.
Finally, I refer to information uploaded by
spid81, a contributor on the
WKT forum (where Names Little seems to be a frequent visitor).
He quotes from a newsletter written by a company, FarEastCapital, which opines about graphite production and graphite companies. It's well worth a read and the opening comment on the thread pictured above.
I think it's worth appreciating that companies do put a positive spin on what they are doing, that construction often runs over budget, and a lot can go wrong. I am grateful for the time DC and team are taking with the demonstration plant and cutting down on risks where possible but the comment above, "there is nothing easy about graphite" is one to remember. That our share registry is very light on institutional buyers or Gina and Twiggy types, is a reminder this investment has not attracted a lot of big sophisticated investors, and I can't remember that last time I saw a "change in substantial holding" notice. Graphite itself is a small, fringe commodity, traded in an opaque market.
Good luck to all of us holders.
