There are numerous short remarks lacking consistency, substance, and credibility. This seems like a last gasp of desperation. It's as though they are aware that their game is almost up.
Recently, they have been making several comments about the dire state of the ex-China graphite market, yet they don’t express this concern in their HC threads as often. Why is that? Perhaps they realise what’s about to happen to their backed-horse. Let’s examine the situation in 'East' African nations to date and over the coming year:
- Black Rock operates on a flawed business model and is currently on life support. It appears that POSCO may have given up?
- Epanko is following the same geological graphite trend as Black Rock, which may lead to a comparable outcome.
- Syrah is facing potential default and may lose its mining licence. Insolvency seems imminent. Who will support it in its present form as two operations in two different locations?
- The Tanzanian election is scheduled for late November. In my opinion, it is extremely unlikely that any finance company or multinational will choose to back the Chinese-supported government in Tanzania until after the elections, especially considering what happened to Syrah in Mozambique post-elections, which also involved Chinese backing (Democracy is dying in Tanzania).
On the other hand Australia has had its elections. It has certainty and Multinationals love certainty. It also has developing government incentives. Australia appears to be the best option and in Australia, RNU is the only clear front runner option to secure PSG.
All IMO, DYOR, GLTA(patient)H
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