General Discussions, page-6723

I too am concerned about things that are going on, but I’m not shouting from the roof tops - I’m trying to balance my thought process.

I think back a couple of years where we have been in the midst of the largest global pandemic since the Spanish flu. True markets were shocked and they recovered and we are living with the forces of supply and demand.

During that time Australia have had massive trade tensions with China, there has been extreme posturing regarding Taiwan, and the USA have been undertaking a massive pull out of the longest war. But life goes on and the forces of supply and demand continue.

many economies are looking to use the pandemic as an opportunity to reposition themselves to tackle other great challenges (climate change) of which electrification is the new industrial revolution.

consumers in many countries have increased their savings as they have had no where to spend it - sure eco omits have been printing money but it keeps going around. That was bound to lead to inflation, but the opposite was that economies would have crashed if they did not inject money. Consumers still have the income to spend - and will in time spend it.

we have recently seen tech stocks bordering on a correction, for mine this is because money is moving away from capital appreciation stocks (value) to stocks that will return at levels greater than inflation. Yes inflation is high but interest rates are extremely low and have been for far too long. Average interest rates historically much higher than they are now. One mite say interest rates are returning to a normal range. Yes things will take time to balance out.

I see that inflation is high - it is possibly part transitional with supply chains and the line (supply and demand), part labour crunch because borders everywhere have been closed and part is stimulus in the economy and money floating around so people are paying more to outbid the next person - you see that in construction. I perceive this will settle back in time. Will it be tomorrow, no.

let’s talk about border closures for a moment - people have adapted to doing business - agree some business have Struggled some have thrived - looking back on it I thought it was the end of the world as I knew it. I was wrong there too.

cost of living is rising prices are going up, but they have over time. My 50c mix at the corner dairy when I was a kid only gets me 3 lollies now. Inflation happens over time - yes it’s going faster currently and yes interest rates will need to rise. This has happened before and it will happen again.

Ukrainian - could that lead to war, yes it could. I’m sure no one wants that but people have their reasons and many of us can’t fathom those. Could they find a diplomatic solution - yes they possibly could. Which way will it go? I don’t know.

So I told you I’m worried, I have got plenty of things wrong and I can’t tell the future. So I chose to focus on what I can see coming. Electrification! So I have bet on this RNU horse because it’s a huge resource in a jurisdiction that will use mining to push gdp and get iteself out of any financial hole ( which I find ironic that one has to dig a hole to get out of one). Can I guarantee it will work out? Nope, but it’s got a lot going for it.