RNU (ASX) General Discussions

Originally posted by bombersmadd: ↑

Hey @Puli

With many new potential investors casting their eyes on Renscor after yesterdays massive tick of confidence from the Federal Government, I thought I would reshare an overview of what makes $RNU the #1 ASX Listed Graphite Play IMO

Geology- Without doubt the #1 factor that separates Renascor from its peers is the the flat horizontal in-situ deposit that is located near surface between 5-15m below surface (you can dig it with your shovel), it is a consistant thick band without variability within veins. This is a truly unique resource in the graphite space and resource space in general.

Located in Australia- You cannot in todays modern society undervalue the importance of being situated in a safe, secure and mining friendly jurisdiction such as Australia. I have seen recently how a particular Lithium Mine I was invested in could be Sold (Taken Away) by the National African Government and given to the Chinese for a mere fraction of its true value. Being in Australia provides investors certainty and confidence in the long term for any Company operating here.

Major Project Status- Renascor is 1 of 29 Projects in Australia that have been granted Recognition from the Australian Federal Government as being economically important to Australia's future. The granting of Major Project Status is that the Federal Government works hand in hand with the 29 companies in securing all necessary state and federal approvals.

Australian Critical Mineral Listing- The Australian Critical Mineral Listing is vitally important for Renascor, it results in us being 1 of only 15 selected projects that are given access to the Department of Industry's AUD$1.3 Billion dollar slush fund to provide low interest finance opportunities for projects that provide critical minerals for Australias economic prosperity. The arrangement also ensures that the Australian Government can assist with various support to any of the 15 projects in terms of further finance, overseas trade negotiations, offtake discussions etc with the full backing of the Australian Government.

Being a Critical Mineral Project also opens avenues for Renascor to secure Finance through the Clean Energy Finance Corporation and Export Finance Australia funding arms (Of which the company already has in-principle support).

Downstream Purified Spherical Graphite -One aspect of Renascor that is overlooked by the short term day traders who do not complete there DD is that Renascor is more than just a mining operation. The company is entering the higher margin downstream processing industry by converting there already high 97.5% Purity Graphite Flake Product, into a world class leading 99.99% Purified Spherical Graphite. The company is unique from other ASX Players who are mining in Africa, then shipping concentrate to Australia or Europe or The USA and then processing, Renascor is on track to become the world’s first integrated, in-country mine and Purified Spherical Graphite operation outside of China i.e. The Mine and Processing Plant are an Hours drive away, not a week by boat.

5 Year Royalty Relief from the South Australian Government- In a positive sign and show of support from the South Australian, they have agreed to provide a reduced 2% Royalty rate for a period of 5 years of the Siviour Project. Many $PLS holders will recall the WA government providing Pilbara Minerals with royalty relief only a few years ago. A massive tick of approval from the State Government

The Revised DFS- Those that have followed along recently and payed attention to Dave's updates would know the revised DFS is due this Qtr and it shapes to be a real company maker. With PSG Recoveries increasing by a whooping 20%, and the currently planned Stage 1 of 825ktpa and Stage 2 1.65Mtpa throughputs likely to get a significant uplift given the increasing interest in PSG from outside China. The Currently planned annual production of 28ktpa of PSG is likely to fall in the range of 85-90ktpa PSG (2/3rds of which is already under non-binding offtake), with strategic interest leaving Rensacor in a positive position.

The company also has significant ability to complete further In-Fill drilling at a later stage to turn the below "Blue Inferred" resources into Indicated or Measured with an 8-9 hole shallow drilling campaign. The shallow ore body near surface is a real winner and what makes RNU my #1 Graphite pick.

Renascor’s Siviour deposit in South Australia contains the largest reported Ore Reserve of Graphite outside of Africa, and the second largest Proven Reserve in the world. There are multiple reasons to invest in Renascor and what makes this project unique is that when you stack it up against its ASX peers, Renascor is usually in the Top 2 or 3 for each category, it results in an extremely LOW Risk, Potentially high Margin Opportunity. The Biggest Hurdle to overcome is gaining approval to operate, the company already has its ML locked away in 2019 and is on the verge of obtaining its PEPR for the Mine in the next month or two, it is open waters after that !

To answer your question specifically, Refer to my DCF Model using the below assumptions.

I would highlight that I have made numerous Assumptions in these workings and the below should be considered general in nature and not financial advice, please always take what you read on HC with a grain of salt and complete your own research !!!

Assumptions- Stage 1 Throughput of 1.65Mtpa vs Stage 2 of 2.25Mtpa
- 23 Year Mine Life on Current Measured + Indicated Resources (No Inferred Tonnage Utilised in Model)
- No Changes to Benchmark Graphite Pricing from Previous Studies (If Graphite Prices Increase, Strap Yourself In )
- Initial CAPEX Increased from US$142m to US$215m (Allowance made for larger initial production + increase in equipment ie. inflation)
- Recovery Grades for Concentrate and PSG as per recent announcements
- AUD:USD= 0.72

Outputs Post Tax- NPV10 of US$1.48B (AUD$2.1B)
- Payback Period of 1.4 Years
- IRR of 57%
- EBITDA LOM US$5.52B (AUD$7.75B)

Potential Share Value / EPS Ratio (2.25 Billion SOI Assumed Considering Majority of Capex from Export Finance Australia + Clean Energy Finance Corporation)PE 10 - $0.92
PE 15 - $1.39
PE 20 - $1.85

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Thanks Bombers, great post.

Feel your on the money about the updated DFS being a Company maker....