Welcome. These are some thoughts I posted a while back, with some extra numbers added for weekend consideration. These are my back of envelope numbers only on what complete success in the consumer market may look like. No factoring for risk etc. I like picking companies with massive upside, so even if they only partially succeed you still do extremely well.
CardieX is a Global Health Technology Company that Develops Solutions for Large Scale Population Health Disorders
Under the ATCOR.X brand, the CardieX develops and licenses its Arty™ platform consisting of physiological and health analytics for wearable devices. The company's digital platform, ArtyNet™, is a connected SaaS ecosystem providing physicians with a complete telehealth solution for remotely managing patients' health (2021 launch).I believe most of the investing community are yet to wake up to the new CardieX business model.
It is still viewed as primarily an FDA-cleared and patented medical device company that focuses on hypertension, cardiovascular disease and other vascular health disorders; in use worldwide at major medical institutions and research institutions.
Fabulous product, but limited $ market potential, and built into current SP.
What the market doesn't understand is that the business is fundamentally changing.By developing patent technology that allows it to transfer it's knowledge for measuring arterial stiffness and central blood pressure waveforms onto wearable devices, it now has the ability to sell a product to every human being in the world via weaarbles. This will happen in 2021, via licensing to current wearable manufacturers and launching their own product.
Nice.
But where this company has really re-invented itself is through the SaaS business model. Anyone who purchases a wearable to monitor their cardiovascular health will want to download the Arty App, and pay the monthly subscription to connect to the Arty digital platform. Why bother with the wearable otherwise!
Some numbers to consider :
The company has nominated fee is $10 per month to subscribe.
Over 50% of the adult population in the USA has hypertension.
I would expect low churn rate from subscribers. Once you have started monitoring your heart health you don't suddenly give up, unless you're dead!
I expect low customer acquisition cost. If you have a heart condition you will come to us. Avoiding death is quite motivating.
And high customer life time value. If we help keep our subscribers alive we could have 20 or 30 years of subscription per user.
We have built a moat with high technical knowledge supporting the Arty digital platform.
Some numbers, 2 years after launch ( April 2023 ).
Let's say 100,000 consumer based subscribers in Australia ( ignoring clinics, doctors, hospitals etc. ).
That's $12M per year. Assume no debt.
Replicate that in the USA, 15x Australia's population= $180M + $12M = $192M
Let's double that again for Europe and the rest of the world, including Asia = $384M
What Price to Sales Ratio for a SaaS business. Lets go x5 ( this can be debated both ways ).
SOI = 1.2Billion ( by 2023 )
Sales per share = $.32, so a SP of $1.60.
Then we start the process of working , bottom up, on estimating revenue and margin on wearables.
Without going through these numbers in detail, I end up around $1.50 SP .
And then there is Atcor Pulse etc.
So I'm punting on between $3 - $4 SP in 2 years, so a MC of around $3.5B - $4B
IMO, In 3 Years , CardieX will be primarily known as a mass-market and SaaS business, that also has a small division selling specialist equipment to medical and research institutions.
IMO. This is not investment advice, just my ramblings.
GLTAH
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