GNX 0.00% 27.5¢ genex power limited

Just my 0.02.Is the business in a better place than it was 12...

  1. 171 Posts.
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    Just my 0.02.

    Is the business in a better place than it was 12 months ago? Definitely!

    Is the stock price in a better place than it was 12 months ago? Definitely!

    Are some investors and CR participants underwater? For sure, I am down on the 2019 CR, flat on the 2020 CR, and down from other times I have bought at prices above todays market price.

    Do I think its as good a time as it has ever been to invest in the business, yes, it is massively de-risked from where it has been over the past 5 years.

    The question is why doesn't the share price reflect that.

    And I think the answer to this is, we have doubled the free floating shares, without doubling the interest from retail and institutional investors, or doubling revenue.

    Although the sell walls seem insurmountable, and they keep getting added to, the entirety of the sell depth is only 2% of the additional float added in this years cap raise. Not particularly large when we think 75 million shares went to underwriters. At some point the people who want to exit this position will do so and we should see a natural re rate.

    The other part is GNX's revenue. The market cap/revenue for last FY is something like 20 or more. And the EV/Revenue is even crazier something approaching 40 or even more. The business looks to the outside world half as good as it did 12 months ago, even though its arguably 2x plus as good.

    The free float issue can only be resolved by additional demand and GNX has definitely upped their social media presence in the past 6 months to try and raise awareness, the Tesla battery will also be a really good opportunity for headlines.

    But the underlying driver will always be revenue, and management have used a variation of "Elon-Time" in all their presentations, which is something they have had to do as they have never really been in a position of strength. We will however see the Jemalong revenue in this quarters financial statements, I am concerned that the revenue is not going to meet my expectations, so I am personally resetting them, especially as a lot of this quarter has been tough for generators. But we will see operational revenue growth for the first time in 3 years, which is awesome.

    If we can keep in our mind 75 mill rev in FY25, probably more like FY26, I personally see the interim 3-4 years as an opportunity to grow my stake in the business before it becomes obvious to the wider community. And I think that should be the investment horizon that you should have when looking at this business, even as I catch myself monitoring the sell walls day to day.
 
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