Pleased to be one of the newer shareholders in Genex.
I have been researching this one for a little while now - and really appreciate the discussion on HC and elsewhere. Here's my two cents as to why I have jumped on board - if you would like to see more of my research, check it out in FinTwit, but here's my five takeaways.
Firstly, while the share price has done nothing for 5+ years since IPO, there has been a lot of de-risking events. I like to think that I am getting 5yrs of de-risking for free, without having to wait.
Second, the history of epic failures by Genex has made the market totally immune to any news or updates. Until the results actually flow to the bottom line, or people can see the developments with their own eyes, this will trade at a discount due to it's history. This is a comparison with the prospectus:
Third, the real value is in the assets. This is an infrastructure play at it's heart. Using recent sales prices of EV/EBITDA, and merging their financials with their pipelines, I came to the conclusion that the real value in FY26 will be at least $0.75c in a bearish scenario, $1.17 in a likely scenario, and +$1.69 in a bullish scenario. This essentially gives me my 'takeover valuations'.
Fourth, I undertook a DCF to look at today's valuations vs future earning streams of their known assets. This is what the brokers have been relying on to state the company is undervalued. My guess was 33c, within the 29-36c range of the brokers. So I'm somewhat confident of a margin of safety at today's price.
Finally, Elephant Capital has done some technial analysis for me. This helps with explaining the "why now". Seems we are in a bullish pattern. I don't invest or research on this basis at all, but it was nice to confirm my thinking.
Of course, the risk is on commercial execution and poor capital allocation. For now, I think that's a fair bet and one I am happy to make.
GLTAH.
GNX Price at posting:
22.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
