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03/10/16

20:52

Post #: 19592351
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Originally posted by mouzo ↑

Original post moderated

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Did you say the $120 m is a for both projects?? If so, please reference this information.

To me that is absurdly low, I am virtually certain the $120m is for the PV project stage 1 only.

Originally posted by aclemence ↑

The Morgans assessment appears to quote earnings of $2m to $3m per year from the solar. In simple terms, this is 0.20 per share @ 12x PE at the top of the earnings forecast. If we work on 16x PE because the income is government backed, you'd be looking at 0.27 per share.

This is a bit too simplistic, though, as the pumped hydro, which is the prime focus of the company, has not been taken into account in my assessment. Whether it produces a higher price target or lower would depend on the debt required to build it and the potential return on that debt (I've been burnt by tunnels, I'll be out real quick at the first sign of any unrealistic modelling because I read them these days).

Thus my outlook is to top up at anything at or below $0.20. Hold at anything above this.

Disclaimer: I'm an engineer, not an accountant!

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Hello fellow engineer. The other consideration is the debt to equity ratio and the equity raise price (or alternatively the reduction in earnings if a % stake is sold for equity). Dilution very quickly erodes earning on an EPS basis, be cautious.

GNX Price at posting: 22.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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