Uhh - there is no parallel you can draw between AGL losing money on some long-term PPAs signed at outrageously high strike prices with the deal between Genex and Energy Australia. Energy Australia are simply paying a fee for the right to operate KPH as they please, the contracting structure and technology type is completely different. Energy Australia doesn't have any dispatchable assets in Qld yet, so this will help them hedge contract positions and be more competitive.
AGL signed PPAs for wind farms at >$100/MWh when the prevailing wholesale prices were less than $50/MWh: https://reneweconomy.com.au/how-agl-lost-nearly-2-billion-from-its-early-push-into-wind-farms/ "AGL offered to buy the output – both wholesale electricity and renewable energy certificates – for more than $100/MWh (in 2010 dollars). That probably equates to more than $130/MWh in today’s money, and compares to contract prices of around $50/MWh, and sometimes less, for wind farms being built today."
Looking at share prices for renewable energy developers overseas, as well as domestically (Tilt Renewables), there is only one direction for Genex, and that is up. You're having a laugh if you think holders will sell to you at 9-12c.
Genex is going hell for leather to break out into a mid-tier generator. - 50MW operational solar farm in Qld - 50MW operational solar farm in NSW - 100MW/200MWh battery in Qld - 250MW/2000MWh PHES in Qld
Plus potentially Kidston wind farm, an expansion of kidston solar farm, and maybe more batteries on the way. So please tell me how you can derive a ~$50 million market cap with the current and planned portfolio when Tilt is worth $2.4 billion?
