Nickel/Cobalt will be used for weight critical transport,...

Nickel/Cobalt will be used for weight critical transport, passengers transport (cars and busses) are not that weight critical and can be (by a major share) achieved with LFP. Also performance oriented and long range cars will have to use high nickel cathodes.It's hard to say what share of LFP/high nickel will be used in the future.

Some indication can be Tesla battery day, their strategy is to use three main chemistry's:
- LFP - standard range and new $25k model car. This is already used in Chinese Model 3 SR+. It has great cycle life so will be no. 1 choice for energy storage.
- Manganse/Nickel - This type of chemistry has low cycle life. The idea is to overcome this with single crystal cathode. I don't know the amount of Nickel in this type of cathode but I have seen somewhere that it's 25%.
- High nickel - Long term plan is to use this only for Tesla Semi and Cybertruck. Currently it's used for more or less all of Tesla's lineup.



The Chinese BYD and CATL have similar plans with LFP, us them where possible. All other manufacturers are basicly all on NCM cathodes, but the question is what they will do when they will hit supply issues and when competition will be offering EVs with ~20% cheaper LFP batteries. I expect the whole industry to switch to LFP where possible.