Many thanks Collie for your comments, and seems we have the same...

  1. 5,118 Posts.
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    Many thanks Collie for your comments, and seems we have the same strategy of putting them in the bottom drawer. Despite my posts on Chart thread I certainly have no intention of trading these CDI's for a few cents profit, and have no plan to establish a trailing stop-loss at any stage. The aim of the Chart thread was to provide some comfort for those who had previously seen it drop continuously from the IPO date. That trend has now turned upwards.

    I will make a few points wrt the questions I asked in the last post. Of course no one knows the answer for certain, and definitely I'm not a great trader (nor great at timing my Orders), but I'm happy to give my view - and i welcome anyone else with the same or a different view.
    I should also emphasise that my opinion has been established after consideration of a couple of communications with Vesparum Capital who act as the independent capital markets adviser for EBR, which includes investor relations activities, and John McCutcheon, CEO EBR.
    1. Will the share price go up in the event that the SOLVE trial is successful?
    Well firstly I'll ask the question - is there a risk that the SOLVE trial could fail - and I will say Absolutely. There is NO guarantee that the SOLVE trial will be successful.
    But a few comments about this trial :-

    a. There are 183 patients implanted with WISE for this trial. But its NOT the first trial using WISE devices - in fact previously, in smaller group trials, all of which have been successful, in aggregate over 350 patients have been treated with WiSE to date, underpinned by extensive clinical experience ie there is already a well established history of success utilising the WISE leadless device.

    b. The primary safety endpoint is 70% freedom from Type 1 complications(where Type 1 complications are anycomplications directly related to thedevice or implant procedure) - othercomplications not related to the implantof the technology are of course still important and are recorded in the databut will not be captured as a Type1complication and therefore will not affect the primary safety endpoint of the trial and the outcome of the headline data. The previous clinical trials I referred to in (a) above suggests that WISE is indeed a safe treatment option - with around a 90% freedom from Type 1 complications (much higher endpoint than the SOLVE endpoint of 70%).

    c. Whilst this SOLVE trial is effectively a binary outcome - the headine results will eithermeet the safety and efficacy endpointsset for the trial, or they will not.
    But it is worthnoting that the clinical trial is significantly derisked as the endpoints set have already been met (and exceeded) in three previous clinical trials of WISE.
    Vesparum suggest that given that this is an interim study - in the event that thesafety and efficacy data are notacceptable to move forward with a PreMarket Approval submission to theFDA (required for commercialising in the USA) then EBR may continue to recruit additional patients into the study. Of course this wouldn't be an ideal scenario.
    Since the end of February, which was indicated to be the end of 6 months for the last recruited patient, EBR has not advised the market of any additional recruits being sought, thus IMO it would appear on raw numbers alone, the SOLVE trial has indications of being successful.

    d. As discussed on other threads the fact that a director has purchased 2 small parcels of CDI's on-market in March also provides me with extra comfort, notwithstanding there clearly must be a careful analysis of all results from the study, that probably has a way to go yet before final determination of the success or otherwise will be made.

    So bearing in mind the 4 points raised above my feeling is that the SOLVE trial has a high likelihood for a successful outcome.
    BUT whilst there remains a risk of failure then in the event of success my view is that the share price of EBR will move upwards from just before the release of a positive outcome.

    2. Would I buy more shares if the SOLVE trial outcome is a success? I have been accumulating over several months, at what I consider to be discounted prices. In the event of a far higher share price if the SOLVE trial announcement is positive I may still buy shares, but nothing like my recent accumulation. But I may buy on weakness if the overall market remains weak.

    Any other opinions are gladly accepted.
 
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