The Maricunga project is set to proceed in the short term, one way or another. My prediction is that Albemarle Corporation will acquire Lithium Power International's Stage 1 and 2. Subsequently, they might target Simco. Due to environmental restrictions, multiple players cannot operate on Maricunga (this is a problem that Galan Lithium is facing, which is arguably why they went with the chloride path). LPI's work over the past 7 years has made the project shovel-ready. Without LPI, the development of Maricunga could be delayed by another four years, which is not acceptable for Chile, as they have stated on multiple occasions.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that is in place between Chile and the USA provides expanded tax credits for Albemarle. This could positively impact their bottom margin by approximately 10%. SQM and BYD Company do not have this advantage. Albemarle's CEO, in an interview a few weeks ago, expressed no concerns about the current political climate in Chile and are excited for future expansion in Chile. This also reflects BHP CEO's comments on Chile.
Don't forget the FTA that protects Australian investors for those concerned about Chile.
The takeover price will be between $1.20 and $1.60 USD (IMO), purely based on previous brine T/O (Litio, Energi Group, etc). I am bullish as I have ever been. I know there are other long-term holders (with huge positions) with the exact same sentiment.
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