10 July:Yunnan Tin Company (YTC), the world’s leading tin producer, has announced that its Gejiu smelter will halt production for equipment maintenance from July 11, 2023, with the overhaul period estimated to last no more than 45 days.
The annual planned maintenance was incorporated into YTC’s 2023 budget and is not expected to significantly impact the company’s annual production plan, according to the official announcement. Despite this, domestic refined tin production is expected to drop substantially in July and August, with YTC producing roughly 5,000-6,000 tonnes of tin per month.
The halt in operations comes in the wake of a marginal 2.1% MoM decrease in China’s total refined tin production in June, which was reported at approximately 14,100 tonnes. This was mainly due to Guangxi China Tin’s Laibin smelter being under maintenance during the month.
A tight concentrate supply lingers over China as producers look to stock up ahead of Myanmar suspension of mining, set to begin August 1st.
Our view: Overall, this year’s maintenance season doesn’t look to be as disruptive as last year, which saw 90% of China’s capacity off-line for 50 days from mid-June. Despite this short-term disruption to tin production, high tin stocks in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are expected to cushion the anticipated dip, with only weakly recovering demand, ensuring an ample supply of refined tin in Q3.Thought I would put this thread up so as not to interrupt other, more informative discussions.
ITA's July email, by Jeremy Pearce.
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Wonder if the shutdown will have any effect on tin demand and supply through the minesite?
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