Does the GDA-GM proposal meets the pubtest?
The Board stated 30c was a grossundervaluing of the company, and that GDA should be valued at $18-$20/litre.Hence, we approved de-listing from the ASX.
The proposed performance targets for theBoard/Leadership are baselining performance as anything above 30c and the $18-$20/litrehas left the equation.
In detail:
The performance incentives are dependenton GDA achieving specific targets, including share price targets:
-$0.90 EoFY 2028
-$1.20 EoFY 2029
-$1.50 EoFY 2030
I value GDA to be between:
-$2.04 to $2.27current value EoFY 2025
-$2.72 to $3.03 EoFY2030
To obtain shareholder approval to de-listfrom the ASX, the Board stated the following:
‘The Board believes the Company remains significantly undervalued (at $0.30)by the market when compared to typical industry metrics such as sales volume,revenue, market share, and brand positioning.’
‘The undervaluation is evident when comparing GDA's enterprise value -which reflects a value of approximately $4 per litre for GDA’s core business(excluding hospitality)…
...to typical industry valuation metrics, which range between $18 to $20per litre based on factors such as sales volume, market share, brand growth andbrand margins.’
I estimate the current value to be above$2 with an incentive-based stretch-target above $3.
e.g.
-15 million litres(current volumes) at $20/litre = $300M company value
-company value $300M /shares on issue (132,131,680) = $2.27 share price.
The Board stated the following:
‘typical industry valuation metrics, which range between $18 to $20per litre’
‘current volumes 15 million litres/annum, with a goal of achieving 18-20million litres.’
Your thoughts?
