I have only ever said they will be about 70m short and I wasn't including the 20m loan. Terms on that aren't clear in terms of payback periods. But if you're going to have to issue equity either way SQM are probably better than retail or instos.
Despite all the arguing I don't wholly disagree with your other post either. Production of Carbonate will be closer to 5k in my opinion. Opex will likely be at least $300 per tonne of spod including royalties. PLS is like 250 something after tantalite credits. KDR no credit but slightly higher grade and worse transport given 320km to Kal. So 8x300 = $2,400 for raw material. $2-2.5k for processing and a little bit for transport out to port and shipping hence my $5k.
China import price ex VAT tax is more like $14k.
So you have $9k margins x 20kt = 180m or USD$240m.
Finance will be 6% at best over 300m capex for refinery so call it 20m interest.
30% tax of $65m. NPAT of $155m. 10x multiple and you have an MC of $1.55bn
I reckon you end up with another 100m shares on issue over the next few years to cover that extra capex, working capital etc.
So 500m shares into $1.55bn is $3
Which is my rough price target for 2022. I said all this days ago. But with construction commencement a year away short term catalysts are scarce.
Was 5 bags when I said it days ago now its closer to 6 bags. Could be life changing for the patient. Short termers will get burnt and talk of $1+ short term will burn more.
KDR Price at posting:
53.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
