Nice to see you here Wolf.
Hmm. Well put it this way, asking me about Wolf is a bit like wandering down Cromwell St in Collingwood and asking the residents who they think will win the grand final.
I'm a MASSIVE Wolf fan so please allow me to smother you with my totally bias, one eyed, rose coloured glasses, glass half full opinion.
Firstly let me disclose that I have a very large holding and even though I haven not recently looked, I assume I'm still in the Top 20.
"..as far as I can derive, they haven't actually found oil yet."
Correct. They are an explorer and need a JV to fund puncturing a hole(s) in one of their umpteen, cheap, 'drill ready' targets that had light crude shows in their shot hole samples.
"I can't find drill dates either.."
Correct. Until they get a JV, no drill dates have been set yet although Bataa (CEO) told me directly that it was their goal to start drilling by the Mongolian Summer. Their seasons aren't defined quite as exactly as ours but there is a big festival type event which is said to mark the beginning of Summer and I understand this usually happens early April.
" Should I be worried that they have been on the market for a couple of years without any actual find and the SP slipped so far"
No. I asked one of the directors how long it takes to get a JV and he said when you are dealing with the Chinese (which they are
) its quite slow and can often take up to two years. Could be perfect timing on your part here.
"..I don't want to invest in FAR of TPT, they have drifted way to low now. But is WOF different than them?"
FAR have already discovered oil so punters now have to decide why they're buying. Long haul (3-5 years) fair enough, but where's the sex for the short term.
As for tpt (now 88E which I also hold), they have a completely different asset in Alaska. Dave Wall is steering the ship and has more industry cred than just about anyone I know. When ex CEO of FAR Michael Evans says he only took a seat on 88E's board because of Dave, you know his reputation is pretty solid.
WOF is different in that we are a driver and a 9 iron away from one of the biggest consumers of exactly what we are digging for, and doing business together has never been easier or on more favourable terms. They know what we've got...and they want it. They know we hold the largest and most impressive acreage in the entire region so it really makes us the only company you'd be serious about climbing into bed with.
From what I understand, one company in particular has been playing hard ball up to now, but they're realising that they're not the only company sniffing around. So close were we to clinching a deal with them, that management were actually invited to China for a 'signing ceremony' only for them to request juuuust a little more time half an hour (literally) before the siren. Nice 'game', but how long do they risk playing it. As another member of management so eloquently put, they're not the only players and its nearly "time to either piss or get off the pot".
So my friend, should you invest?
Well I can only answer by saying that I would give anything to be in your shoes and STARTING now. My average is waaaay above current market price but i'm still as happy with my investment as I was when I first bought it. Just wish I had the money to upset my portfolio balance and buy more.
At the end of the day, its all about whether you think management can get this partner formerly over the line. I think they can.....and I also think Dockers will win the grand final. No guesses where I live
.
Good luck. Be interested to hear what you decide.
