Many of you active posters/readers would remember I detailed timelines in a previous post about key project announcements and I said I am keen for the quarterly to see if those timelines slip again. I have updated my original post and unfortunately it doesn't look good.
Consistent missed deadlines, then the deadlines get pushed back again and missed again and rinse and repeat. Some announcements have been pushed back over 15 months in such a short timeframe.
This time, I will be sending an email to the team and asking for a phone call to get some guidance on the reasoning behind this.
Once again, I need to make it clear that I am notdown ramping as I know some posters are very quick to use that word. I have been an investor in this stock when it was Reed Resources, before many posters here.
Please be advised this was done to my best knowledge and accuracy. I have used the most recent quarterly to highlight the newest timeline.
LiB Recycling
Finalise Class 3 ECS Stage 1 & 2 Plant Germany 50 TPD - 30th June 2022 (Announcement per 16th May)
Opex and Capex Study for 50TPD Spoke Pant in Germany was due in July 2022 (Announcement per 29th of July) (Missed by 2 months and Stage 2 still pending)
Opex and Capex Study for 50TPD Spoke Pant in Germany was due in August 2022 (Announcement per 2nd of August) (Missed by 1 months and Stage 2 still pending)
Engineering Cost Study for the First Stage was only delivered on September 13th 2022.
Stage 2 (hub) is now expected in the June 23 quarter. 12 months late.
Its beyond comprehension how on the 29th of July Quarterly report they still advised that the indicative timeline was for a July Announcement when there was only 2 days left in July and it was delivered in September 13th. To report the expected announcement date as July on the 29th of July and then deliver the report in mid September is questionable at best. It is hard to believe that on the 29th of July, when the Quarterly report was published, that Neometals was not aware of the fact that they would miss the July deadline. Its either incompetence or someone was copying and pasting from previous announcements or something else...
ECS for 50 TPD Hydromet Hub in Germany - December Quarter 22 (Announcement per 13th September)
Now pushed back to June 23 quarter.
Keep in mind that the original projections above were for both Spoke plant and Hydromet Hub from my understanding.
50 TPD FID & Execute Plant Supply Agreement - July 2022 (Announcement per 14th of March)
Spoke Plant Supply Agreements for MB and Stelco - December Quarter 22 (Announcement per 13th September)
This has been pushed back to March 23 quarter for MB and June 23 quarter for Stelco. Over 12 months late for the Stelco plant.
FID 50 TPD Stelco Plant - September Quarter 22 (Announcement per 16th May)
Consider Investment decision to acquire up to 50% equity in Stelco Recycling SPV - March Quarter 2023 (Announcement per 13th September)
FID for stelco plant now September quarter 23. Pushed back a further 6 months from previous estimate or pushed back a further 12 months from original estimate.
Spoke Plants Supply agreements for Stelco was advised as January in the video - March Quarter 2023 (Announcement per Crux Interview)
Spoke plant supply agreement now June 23 quarter.
As you can see from above, this is our core business and it has continuously been pushed back.
Furthermore, Chris has said there is a number of car makers and battery producers approaching him to see how they can skip the line or get in front of it as they need access to recycling now but the way we are going, everything is constantly being pushed back even on our core project which is battery recycling and even with demand growing for our business.
Vanadium Recovery Business Unit
Class 3 Feasibility Study - 30th June 2022 (Announcement per 16th May)
Class 3 Cost Study was delivered on the 8th July.
They missed this deadline by a week or so which is fine.
Permitting/Environmental Permits from Finland - September 2022 (Announcement per 29th July)
This was delivered October 24th. A month late.
FID - End of 2022 (Announcement per 16th May)
FID has been pushed back to June 23 quarter. 6 months late.
Keep in mind that the special purpose vehicle VRP1 is now expected to be finalised in the March quarter 23.
3 months after the FID was ment to occur.
ELi
Purification Trials - June Quarter (Announcement per 29th July)
Now expected in the March quarter 23. (Changed to bench-scale trials).
Completion Class 3 ECS by Primero - December Quarter 22 (Announcement per 29th July)
Now the Class 3 ECS by primero - Bench is expected in June 23 quarter.
And the Class 3 ECS by primero - Pilot is expected in September 23 quarter. Nearly a year later!
Electrolysis Trials - 2H 2022 (Announcement per 14th of March)
Electrolysis Trials - 1H 23 (Announcement per 29th July)
No update on electrolysis announcements or dates as far as I can see.
AACE CI.2 FEED Study - June Quarter 23 (Announcement per 14th of March)
AACE CI.2 FEED Study - December Quarter 23 (Announcement per 29th July)
AACE class 2 study now estimated to ONLY commence in September 23.
Barrambie
Completion of Jiuxing Plant Trials - February 2022 (Announcement per 28th of October 2021)
Completion of Jiuxing Plant Trials - May 2022 (Announcement per 14th of March)
Completion of Jiuxing Plant Trials - June Quarter 2022 (Announcement per 16th May)
Completion of Jiuxing Plant Trials - August 2022 (Announcement per 29th July)
Finally completed November 3 2022. 9 months late.
AACE Class 4 PFS - Quarter 1 22 (Announcement per 28th of October 2021)
AACE Class 4 PFS - September Quarter 22 (Announcement per 16th May)
AACE Class 4 PFS - December Quarter 22 (Annual Report 22)
Was delivered on the 17th November, 8 months late.
Execution of Formal Offtake Agreement with Jiuxing - Q2 2022 (Announcement per 28th of October 2021)
Execution of Formal Offtake Agreement with Jiuxing - October 2022 (Announcement per 16th May)
Execution of Formal Offtake Agreement with Jiuxing - Q1 23 (Announcement per 29th July)
Formal offtake agreement is now estimated to be concluded in the September 23 quarter. A good 15 months after the first timeline announced.
Execution of Barrambie BOO/T Contract - Q2 2022 (Announcement per 28th of October 2021)
Execution of Barrambie BOO/T Contract - December 2022 (Announcement per 16th May)
Execution of Barrambie BOO/T Contract - Q2 2023 (Announcement per 29th July)
Now estimated to occur in December 23 quarter. A good 18 months after original estimate.
Each project has a dedicated team, so there is no room for excuses why timelines are not being met. Yes, some external factors might've influenced some of them but its not good enough. Each project manager needs to step up and deliver. They have approx $50 million in cash, they can hire more staff to meet timelines as right now, i don't have any faith in Neometals keeping timelines.
I believe the reason for the share price drop in recent months is solely due to missed timelines and it's why shorters have been active. There is a consistency of missed timelines and unfortunately I have no confidence that NMT will deliver on these latest already delayed timelines. However, this is a long term hold for me.
Hopefully, NMT can sort itself out and start meeting timelines and restore some lost confidence in management to be able to do that as it has the technology and is in high growth commodities, has the cash to minimise equity dilution and has projects like Barrambie that are valued at close to $0 at the moment and they will hopefully spin that off like WIN which is doing well. I see a big future for NMT but they need to start delivering on current customers like MB, Stelco and hopefully Itochu and then start gaining market share quicky.
I will post here with updates if NMT get back to me regarding the issued deadlines and with their permission.
All the best,
Sarge
