As has been pointed out, recycled content in new batteries will...

As has been pointed out, recycled content in new batteries will probably be mandated in most jurisdictions and in the EU, it is already being phased-in under regulations made last year. There's a schematic of the regulatory milestones ahead in the EU on the 2nd page of NMT's most recent announcement relating to flowsheet recovery rates. Batteries going to landfill isn't even a legal option. It means that mandated recycled content for Li, Co and Ni in battery manufacture in the EU can't be substituted with virgin material no matter how far the spod price falls.

The other leg of this is volume. By no means a hard and fast number and others may know better, but about 600GWh of annual EU battery production is expected by 2040. Much of that in the next decade, all making production scrap that will need recycling, with increasing volumes of end-of-life stuff as the years roll by. It's a hell of a lot of batteries.

Of course, there are no guarantees NMT will nail the opportunity. While they don't look like doing so, they will have plenty of opportunities to fluff it from here. But someone will get it right and there will be big bickies in it for them.