All of that is 100% valid, but I will also add a couple of my thoughts.
Apologies if this comes across negative, I am definitely watching this company, I did (and do) believe in the projects, I have invested hundreds of hours in this company.
In saying that, I am just not convinced that the team of good old boys running the show are entirely working in the best interests of shareholders. Maybe they are, but the lack of news, progress and changes leads me to believe they will maintain the status quo for as long as they can.
Here are the things for me:
The general strategy employed by Chris: Now this would be great if it worked out, but it didn't... Chris' brilliant idea was to create "partnerships" that are built on one side putting up all of the funds and taking on all of the risk, and NMT providing the technical know how - but not at a commercially proven scale. There are no businesses successfully operating at a profit with these technologies.
Mercedes would have told him to take a hike, so he partnered with SMS in order to further reduce the investment for NMT. I actually think the SMS partnership is a good one, and the model is sound but all of the work will be done to Mercedes' specifications, and how applicable or transferable those specifications will be to other potential customers is yet to be determined.
If the market is as big, and the commercials and margins around these technologies are so great, then why wouldn't NMT want to invest money in order to not just prove the tech, but realise more upside?
Either it works, is scalable and it is valuable - in which case put your money where your mouth is, or there's a risk it work scale or it doesn't work - and then you've got to find and convince some other sucker to pony up. This approach clearly hasn't worked.
Cash flow VS cash burn: Apart from money in the bank, there are currently no income producing projects. There have been no announcements with relation to changes in the top heavy structure of the company, so there are either a lot of idle people, or a lot of people who are working but achieving very little.
Battery Recycling: The working partnership with Mercedes is great but will require further investment, likely over a period of years before a major deal is struck. If a major deal is announced in the next 12 months, then congrats to the team, but I personally do not think this will happen.
Stelco have already provided a 2025 timeline, but there are no guarantees that the project won't get delayed or cancelled. I would dare say that with no investment coming from NMT, they would prefer to watch how the Mercedes trial goes, let them invest all of the time and cost in developing and refining the process, and then make a decision once the processes, numbers and margins have been validated (or not).
Barrambie: Once again Chris has stated he doesn't want to put his hand in his pocket to pay for the development of the project. This means the lions share of profits will go to the partners who take on all of the risk and put up all of the money. What is the point of owning a world class asset if you see a much smaller portion of the profits. If dilution is Chris' concern, he isn't really showing it given the last raise, and the very likely future raises.
Bondalti/Liftium: Once again we have a "partnership" for a technology that is not commercially proven that is built on one side putting up all of the funds and taking on all of the risk. It's not dead, but it isn't near term either. I am guessing that there is more to this story, and the project was put on hold because NMT couldn't contribute because Chris burnt all of the money.
Finland Vanadium: This was the most shocking development for me. With everything that was in place, all of the guidance we were given, and the ultimate lies we were told in the paid interviews, I can't understand how it could all fall apart - unless people were acting in bad faith.
The explanation was entirely unsatisfactory, and I honestly believe there is a lot more to this situation than what has been announced. We will never know the truth because Chris pays for easy interviews with very little accountability, and them employs radio silence when things get bad.
The government underwriting the project was really the major de-risking factor in terms of financing, and the 100% off take from Glencore was the cherry on top. I would say that at a minimum, these opportunities would need to be re-negotiated - if they haven't gone away entirely.
In summary: It is impossible for me to trust Chris after his performance between October and December. I think there are opportunities, but there needs to be a clearing out of all levels of management and the board.
(20min delay)
