St....ead Barry Fitzgerald 22.10.21

Fitzgerald, a mining journalist for about 35 years, said

Barry FitzGerald: The lithium small cap that also gives you plenty of bling for your buck

Mining

October 22, 2021|Barry FitzGerald

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There is good reason to think Rio Tinto is better than the average Joe in predicting just where commodity demand and prices are headed.

That’s why what it said about lithium during the week at its marathon capital markets briefing is worth noting.

Rio said that on the back of the accelerating EV uptake, annual lithium demand was headed to 3 million tonnes by 2030.

That compares with the current demand for 350,000 tonnes.

Existing operations and new projects are good for an increase in supply to 1 million tonnes which on Rio’s figures, means the world is staring down the barrel of a 2 million tonne supply gap.

WOW, talk about boom times ahead for the lithium producers, explorers, and developers.

Rio is not a lithium producer (other than some small scale stuff from tailings in the US), but it wants to be at its $US2.3 billion Jadar project in Serbia from 2026, assuming it can put opposition to the project from some locals to rest.

On Rio’s demand expectations out to 2050, the world is going to need another 60 Jadar projects to meet the demand.

It is an almighty challenge for the industry and will require bumper pricing for the key battery material to incentivise the herculean effort required in finding and developing the new mines.

Now it has got to be said that * readers already know about the lithium boom Rio is pointing to. But Garimpeiro relays Rio’s take on it to soothe concerns in some quarters that the lithium market has already run too hard and too fast.

It could be case of we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

Just keeps goin’ and goin’ and goin’