Hi Bron. I'm aware of the good things about the company, at 160k next year production, it puts fair-value of Mt. Cattlin alone at 50c, not considering the other resources.. at current (realistic) ore prices, it is a long term play for LT holders of course.
Keep in mind we were told at the May AGM that we'd be doing about 220k or 240k by 2017 at Cattlin, with first shipment sure thing in September, and advancing SdV with a pilot plant in 2017 that would produce 12,000 tonne (I'm quite sure that's what I was told) This is now a 1200 tonne pilot, (a factor of 10 difference smaller) as a pilot (which would produce about 17M income only to begin with). Followed by a full scale plant build of 24,000 tonne in 2018 at SdV (336M per annum income), valuing SdV anywhere between $1.40 - $1.80.
Based on what has transpired so far... I'd be surprised if we meet any of those dates, or targets as quoted. Please, pleasantly surprise me, GXY, for a change...
Many of my intiial figures and time-frames were based on what I was told or what was published. Much of this has turned out to be .. incorrect. We will get to those levels, but you may as well add a year to the predictions now... I don't believe in the Lithium over-supply theory at all.
I also realise weather is a big factor, but honestly, it should not be a show-stopper. There are ways and means to get things done.
A number of our underwater holders or soon-to-be-underwater holders actually jumped out. Possibly for good, but I suspect they are just waiting to re-enter at some point. I always questioned their commitment anyway, as they were traders, who decided to take a LT position and that never ends well. Not just singling out Ravenhaller, I'm sure there were plenty of others who jumped, and really, who can blame them? If their capital is best employed elsewhere.
GXY Price at posting:
32.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
