Hi team, and welcome to 2024! An exciting year incoming for PCL. Some quick analysis of DECEMBER 23 Broker data + technical analysis of state of affairs. This is a continuation on from the Sept, Oct & Nov posts (links below) - just so you can see the progression of the Technical Analysis (which is quite interesting how it's all unfolding). We are reaching a point however where some fundamental catalysts will be critical to further sp moves (which if positive, could be ferocious moves imo).
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Sept Summary:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/general-thoughts.7495348/page-1444?post_id=70313940
October Summary:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/general-thoughts.7495348/page-1641?post_id=70664104
November Summary:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/general-thoughts.7495348/page-1811?post_id=71217043
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Month of DECEMBER (1DEC > 31DEC) Broker data:
Quick observations:
- Particularly low volume month in Dec (approx. $4.6m of turnover). By comparison both Oct & Nov did approx $8.5m each month.
- Euroz a net seller (but super low turnover). Wealthhub & Commonwealth net buyers (but again, fairly low volume).
- My Observation/interpretation of this data is - "people/instus who have been positioned early, are quite simply not selling (low volume, little opportunity creation because of low volatility). Those who are watching, are awaiting a positive fundamental catalyst before jumping in and observing closely".
- SP is simply floating on low volume upwards, because there is nobody willing to sell, or buy until confirmed catalyst - which will create some volatility.
Make of the broker data what you will (not a huge amount to glean from it in Dec imo):
Technical Analysis: (continued from post here in early DEC:
https://shorturl.at/abCMZ) < worth looking at to see the progression:
- Data has been analyzed over
weekly timeframe (for consistency, and to better observe entrenched trends).
- December 2023 has been a consolidation month, forming a higher base ( range trading between 0.014 - 0.018), similar to what occurred in Feb -May 2023 (base of 0.008 - 0.011). You'll note I've drawn
3 trend lines, which forms
2 major trading channels - currently we are sitting in the high end of the bottom channel (0.019). It has been low volume, but clearly trending upwards. A break above 0.020, we would look for 0.020 to become support, as it accends into upper channel trading range (0.023 - 0.028).
-Oscillator indicating upward momentum (but light volume - I'd like to see this increase significantly...but likely reliant on hard fundamental catalyst...which I believe is what the broader market and instus are waiting on; ie, confirmed WDS farm-in).
- MACD - the signal line is teasing us, and has not quite formed the bullish 'golden cross'....but does look imminent (if volume starts coming in - imo). You'll note in the MACD indicator i've marked in red the 3 times in the past that the MACD has crossed - resulting in a vicious move to the upside. I expect this will be no different.
- Stochs- stochs are indicating a strong uptrend (however keep in mind this is low volume). You'll note in the Stoch indicator chart, i've boxed in red 3 times this has happened in the past - again, resulting in strong uptrends, and incoming high volume. Also, stoch's can remain in the 'hot' area for 3-4months, each of the 3 times more than doubling the sp.
Quick observations 'in a nutshell':
All the technicals are looking good - with the current exception of 'volume'. Keep in mind December was last month of the year (quiet period generally) - also we are pending some fairly big 'fundamental' catalysts - which I think the market is waiting on (confirmation). I'd like to see PCL break to the 0.020 level within the next 1-2 weeks, and hold that (with volume). Else - there is a chance it trades back down to the bottom on the channel - circa 0.015, to consolidate further (which would be a buying opportunity imo, assuming nothing fundamental has changed).
But..in saying all of that, TA is just pattern watching - so a grain of salt needed (ie, not financial advice...lol). Really looking forward to hard structural catalysts (which if positive, from a TA perspective we are in a great setup for a high volume, high velocity move to the upside).
Quick Fundamental Catalysts:2024 is a very exciting year for PCL. There are a few
major catalysts incoming which will put some real certainty ahead of us:
- License extension (imminent).
- 3D seismic analysis with interpreted pre-stack depth migration (PSDM) & associated AVO analysis/data (will give us a really good idea of what we're sitting on) - imminent.
- WDS confirmed farm-in + associated timeline (critical & likely) - albeit, there seems to be speculative rumor this may have already occurred (
https://shorturl.at/anuV9) - I'd take this with a grain of salt however (imo). Q4-24?
- Rig scheduling/booking + confirmed spud date.
More broadly we have continued activity in the orange basin - such as the Pel83, Mopane-1x drill (
https://shorturl.at/xDHQT) - which has recently observed hydrocarbons being present (to what extent, to be confirmed) - which will play into PCL's perceived prospectively via 'near-ology'. Obviously tonnes of other activity, and discoveries in the area (venus, graff, etc) - making this a super hot exploratory location - true elephant hunting grounds.
Parting December thoughts:It's been a big year (2023) for PCL. Lot's of moving parts - and management are clearly doing a great job navigating the complexities of positioning little PCL to punch well above it's weight in such a hot basin. I expect the next few months (maybe even weeks) to be huge for PanCon. Management ticking all the right boxes. Namibia very receptive to all the exploration in the area, and has good relationship with PanCon team. As usual i'm bullish (but also patient..very patient). That's my ramblings over, exciting times ahead.
(20min delay)