Thinking about some of the numbers:The potential size of the...

Thinking about some of the numbers:

The potential size of the reservoir is 35km wide by 71km long and up to 320m thick so if it were a regular oblong structure that amounts to about 800 billion cubic metres.

There are 6 barrels per cubic meter so 6 barrels multiplied by 800 billion cubic meters equates to 4.7 Trillion barrels.

So now we have the reservoir sand volume we can calculate how much of that contains oil in amongst the sand.

Discount by 90% to allow for the thickness to be an average of 32 meters and now we have a 470 Billion barrel structure.

Discount it again by 99% to allow for porosity and permeability factors and we end up having about 5 Billion barrels in place.

This is in line with Euroz Hartleys published estimates.

Assuming an in ground value of $10 USD per barrel and allowing for PCLs position of 20% after farm-out and conversion from USD to AUD, the MC would be around $15 Billion AUD

With an undiluted 8.5 Billion shares that puts the share price for PCL at around $1.75 AUD

Going back to porosity and permeability factors:

A change of 1% in both adds another 5 Billion Barrels and therefore another $1.75 AUD to the PCL share price.

A 20 Billion barrel structure would translate into a $7 AUD share price.

However its difficult to see PCL staying all the way through to production but instead being taken over post discovery.

Those negotiations are probably the main reason why Iain Smith has been brought on, along with spruiking PCL to brokerages and investment funds in the build up to the first drill.

In a quiet voice: "this is a once in a lifetime opportunity"