"These major companies should hold off or consider buying PCL instead of jumping into Mopane.Consider that 20% of 40BB's is a better option (and far cheaper) than 40% of 10BB's."Good thinking. I am sure that every major is discussing every possible strategic option to get the optimum result.
Investing in Mopane has the highest probability of success, because it is derisked to a high degree already with two successfull wells and this worldclass 14.000 bbl/ d well test. But it will be expensive and Galp wants to see top $ as reward for the world biggest discovery since 24 years.
I guess only one major will win the 40% Mopane share, perhaps together with a non operating farm in partner like a chinese or arabic state owned company, which would reduce the financial burden for the major for the farmin.
For me Exxon or Shell are in the pole position for the Mopane deal.
Perhaps Total can overtake them but only when Total has a non operating farmin partner with deep pockets (chinese state owned (Petro China etc), arabic state owned ( Qatar Energy, ADNOC or perhaps even ARAMCO could be getting interested because of the mere size of the oil fields? ) in the background already I guess because till now Total is the most active one in the Orange Basin who spent already some money.
Chevron could be good for a surprise. Chevron did now two deals with Sintana Energy already,. Both deals with relatively low costs. Chevron, and as well ExxonMobil have a historical involvement with the Saudi elephant oil fields and because of this experience both companies would not shy away to pay top $ for an elephant in Namibia (I think).
Equinor is late to the party but perhaps Equinor is strategically ready to do the first step with a big investment? And as I understand it could be a strategic fit for Equinor, who recently farmed out Nigeria offshore.
Petrobras is pretty quiet and inactive although Petrobras knows everything about turbidites in deep water on the other side of the Atlantic.
BP and ENI teamed up as one team already in Namibia with the recent farm in because none of them is strong enough to go alone?
Sometimes other Asians like the Korean, Japanese oil companies surprise with big upstream investments as well. In this case I see them as non operating farmin and joint venture partners only, together with one of the majors with deepwater experience.
If one one the majors succeeds with Mopane, the other majors , who are hungry to enter or wish to increase their assets in the Orange Basin, will be dissapointed. And than the Pancontinental/Woodside option with the possible monster Saturn can become an option and their contingency plan.
An interesting speculation could be. The higher the price to enter Mopane now, the more money could be offered to buye Pancontinental before the first Saturn well is drilled.
On the other hand the longer Woodside and Pancontinental are waiting, respectively the more exploration success we see in the Orange Basin the higher the entrance prices for the others.
The more risk averse Woodside/PCL, the earlier Saturn will be sold.
Of course we will see the highest jackpot price for PCL only after a successfull Saturn exploration well with a worldclass production well test rate, which could confirm the 40 billion barrel oil in place dream. But this means we must wait patiently longer and we will take some extra risk (not the risk averse option) and we will need some extra good luck for hitting a sweet spot, low viscosity oil with the first well in Saturn.
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Just a question for the G&Gs here: do you think we have the same reservoir temperatures, reservoir depth in Venus, Mopane and Saturn?
Background: Total mentioned that the permeability in Venus is on the lower end. But this is compensated by the ultra low viscosity of the oil. (Viscosity is a function of the chemical composition and the reservoir temperature). So which reservoir temperature could we expect in the Saturn compared to Venus and Mopane. The same , higher or lower?
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