Gentlemen,I can assure you that if the first Woodside well on...

Gentlemen,

I can assure you that if the first Woodside well on the Saturn Prospect is an oil discovery like Mopane, then it is extremely likely a major will approach PCL to fund their 20% of the second well with a placement to ensure PCL maintain their 20% interest in the second well and PEL 87.
Then assuming a Mopane-1X and 2X type success, the major taking the placement will then launch a takeover bid on-market for the rest of the PCL shares it does not own!

At what price would a take over bid be made in the the above hypothetical scenario? who knows?

Some big numbers floating around for PCL share price in event of an oil discovery, but on a NPV basis of US$5/bbl and recoverable reserve size numbers, the Euroz Hartley matrix table in the 11 January 2024 research report, provides, imho, fair estimates for the PCL share price for a range of recoverable resource size estimates for PCL's 20% interest In PEL 87, without being too over the top.

So for every estimated 2.5 billion boe in place, this equates to an estimated 1 billion boe recoverable resource size using a 40% recovery factor for the boe in place.

So to determine the PCL share price estimate for a 1 billion boe recoverable resource size, going to the Euroz Hartley Matrix below and scrolling horizontally along the US$5 NPV line to the vertical "Gross Potential Resource Size (Million bbls)" column for 1,000 billion boe - the PCL share price estimate is 16.8 cents.


Now for the fantastic 40 billion boe in place number being bandied around on the forum, this would equate to 16 billion boe recoverable resource size with a 40% recovery factor and with US$5/bbl NPV, provides an estimated PCL share price of $2.69. ( 16 times the PCL share price estimate for a 1 billion boe discovered resource size).

Now remember these 'estimated PCL share prices' are highly speculative and depend on one critical detail- an oil discovery being made on the first well in PEL 87- first roll of the dice going for 7 or 11 is a very good analogy!

So all 'possible' future estimated PCL share prices should be considered 'dream land' at present, until Woodside JV has a drilling result!!.

The rotary lie detector as usual will reveal all and what PCL shareholders might be wearing when the tide goes out!

I have my tuxedo packed for a good result and a pair of jocks as well, just in case.

DYOR!! and GLTAH!