Here we have even a number for the probability of the success rate for near-field exploration in Namibia:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/2024/07/18/african-outpost-namibia-gets-ready-to-become-new-oil-hotspot/The French oil giant, along with London-based Shell Plc and Portugal’s Galp Energia SGPS SA, has made big discoveries beneath the Atlantic Ocean about 180 miles off the coast of Namibia. Since the start of 2022, multiple wells drilled have hit oil around 80% of the time – a nearly unprecedented success rate.
General Thoughts, page-4676
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