https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/first-steel-cut-for-woodside-s-landmark-floater/2-1-1739223
WDS outlays 1.2 billion US for FPU in Mexico with 479 million gross best estimate in ultra deep water (2500m)
In contrast, our neighbor Galp, closer to 2.5 billion recoverable thus far disclosing that Meg
@wds has no reservation about opening purse for much smaller resource)
The way Pel 87 3D is looking, Saturn could well hold some serious oil/gas reserves if the 'entire Saturn complex' is ripe to host deposits(per september quarterly).
Accordingly, i conclude that our very own Pel 87 could well be the cream of the Orange basin.
Lets now explore the possibility of Woodside cutting us out with a new deal with Namcor.
WDS currently optioned @ 57% while Namcor hold 10%.
Total 67%.
the difference of 33% held by inter oil( custos +sintana) and PCL.
we know that Namcor want a larger stake in leases.
Question is, can custos to be cut out in new deal where WDS will also want >57% and delay potentially, a further 37 months(3 years) until lease option expires.
If not, the difference they are chasing is PCL's 19% which is 8.5% if split 2 ways.
Noting that Namcor aldo have access to 3D and may excersize the right to relinquish part of the lease during 2026 renewal which is a risk for WDS.
lets assume WDS dragged it out for another 12 months(Jan26).
PCL will no doubt excersize their option to renew lease for a further 2 years
.
Unless i have missed something, my conclusion:
#Pel 87 potential oil reserves(tick)
#Can WDS and Namcor cut PCL out?
Yes, but min 3 years,(assuming permit renewal of a further 2 years)
#Are there risks associated with WDS cutting PCL out and what do they stand to gain?
Yes, relinquishment of a chunk of Pel87. Up to a further 3 year delay in likely scenario that PCL renew which could worse case mean a cap raise to fund
just thinking out loud
(20min delay)