General Thoughts, page-6907

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stocksluice

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08/01/25

14:54

Post #: 77319566
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Originally posted by stocksluice: ↑

This bloke is making some faulty assertions and overall incredibly conservative assumptions comparing Sintana with Africa Oil's stake in Impact's 10% of PEL 56:
1) He compares Total's discoveries in PEL 56 "in terms of size is about similar to Mopane." No, Mopane, in terms of size is at least twice that of Total's discoveries in PEL 56.
2) "Venus include a lot of gas, again similar to Mopane." This is simply false. Mopane does have gas liquids, but not "a lot of gas."
3) "Impact is being carried like Sintana with Galp." This is true.
4) "Overall similar profile of [the] asset." He neglects to mention that Mopane is relatively much shallower, and much closer to the Kudu gas field, all suggesting to me at least that development will be less expensive and will more likely come into production years before Total's resources will. With Galp's commitment to seafloor seismic, I'd wager we'll have a FID on Mopane by the end of 2026.
5) Based on the above he concludes, based on what Africa Oil paid Impact, that Sintana's interest in Mopane is valued at ~$500MM. Which he then reduces by 45% to basically get a value for Sintana of (presumably CDN) $1.10/share.
My take is that he is seriously undervaluing Sintana's interest in Mopane by at least half, even with his 45% discount, based on what appears to be very limited knowledge of geology and petrophysics.

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I should add, Pancontinental's PEL 87 is the only PEL in Sintana's portfolio that warranted two full slides instead of just one in their nice new corporate presentation slide deck... yah baby, and we all know why!
https://sintanaenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/sei_corp_presentation_jan24.pdf

PCL Price at posting: 2.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last 1.1¢		Change 0.001(4.76%)		Mkt cap ! $89.50M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.1¢	1.1¢	1.0¢	$5.632K	513.1K

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
22	15144637	1.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.1¢	3593010	5

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
22	15144637	0.010
18	9181912	0.009
18	4232862	0.008
6	2359691	0.007
7	11048333	0.006

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.011	3593010	5
0.012	3765948	11
0.013	3509261	7
0.014	2408742	5
0.015	1371302	5

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General Thoughts, page-6907

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General Thoughts, page-6907

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