Ok, trying that again...
I'm a little late to the game with my calculations, but I figured I'd share them anyway. Over the weekend I feel like I did a crash course in reservoir engineering!
Ok, based on the recent given data, learning from others on here, and investigating some industry standards for light oil discoveries; I figured I'd try to model out some bull, bear, base, cases we have. There are quite a few assumptions here - however I've aimed to be conservative in my base case. The modelling approach is Stock Tank Oil Originally in Place (STOOIP) - while there are other models that could be used, this is typically the most common to help estimate the total volume of hydrocarbons in a reservoir.
Our variables for our base case (which is purposefully made conservative) will be:
-Area (acres): 1385km (Oryx & Hyrax leads combined) > Converted to acres: 342,240 acres > **half this area for very conservative safety buffer = 171,120 acres.
-Net Pay Thickness (ft): 50ft
-Porosity: 15%
-Water Saturation: 40%
-Formation volume factor: 1.2 (typical of light oil discoveries).
-Recovery factor: 30%
**note: i've halved the area (acres) to create significant conservative buffer.
-Bull Case is a +10% to area size, net pay thickness, higher porosity, and lower water saturation:
-Bear Case is a -10% to area size, net pay thickness, lower porosity, higher water saturation.
See table below the outcome of each Base, Bear, Bull case below (using the STOOIP method, and inputs mentioned above.
Now, just for fun, lets use the
full area size outlined in recent quarterly (1385km =
342240 acres)
If you really want a thrill, it's worth considering that the net pay encountered by Venus1x, was 84metres (275 feet) - so my 50feet, is extremely conservative (assuming we actually have hydrocarbons in the first place, which are moveable).
Note: i've not applied a geological chance of success (GCOS) factor into this calculation - which will drastically reduce the volumetrics, as OG iterated a few days back. BUT - I think it's pretty clear, that the structure we are targeting has the 'possibility' (not the certainty) of holding a significant amount of hydrocarbons/gas. The scale of the structure alone (imo) is reason enough for either WDS or other major to throw down a few drills to confirm.
Note, Note: This is still inherently massively risky. Also my math's could be wrong (but I've done my best to double check - not financial advice..).Even if the bear case is used, and we consider PCL currently holds 19-20%; 2.4B barrels recoverable, with in-ground value of $1USD (conservative), is circa 480M USD. So multiples of our current market cap...
Note, Note, Note: patience.
(20min delay)