General Thoughts, page-7715

I am surprised this opinion has not been shared yet (maybe thats my arrogance). I think WDS being slow to farm-in is a smart business decision, and I will not be surprised if we are much closer to May 18th when an announcement is made.

Oil and gas exploration is high to ultra-high-risk. With the great analysis provided over recent weeks (thanks to all) PEL 87 looks about as good geology as we could ask for (pre-drill). Despite this, OldGeo has given a 30% chance of success. That might might seem low, but it is as high as it gets for oil and gas exploration. So, even in best case, you're more likely to lose (to any of the less experienced punters on here, take that to heart).

So, if you were WDS, you would leverage every advantage you have. One of them is time, as it means they garner more information for free.

Right now, WDS are "in position" in the Orange Basin, a poker term meaning you are the last to play and therefore have the most information to play with. They can wait for others to drill and learn from that. We've learnt a tremendous amount about the Orange Basin over the past 12 months. Every successful and failed well informs WDS's decision. Look how much we've gleaned and we don't have access to a data room.

Whatever the reason, fact is there has been a delay to farm-in. That has resulted in WDS having more information to inform their decision. More results are on the way. If I was WDS, I'd run that clock down to the buzzer.

p.s. I think there are many reasons to the delay, and this is just one.
p.p.s Despite our collective frustration, venting about the delay here only grows tension and is not productive. Saying "oh they should do this or that and farm in already" makes you feel good, but lets please not let it drown out the rest. WDS don't care. It'll happen when it happens.