Hi OldGeo, great post. As you know the 'chance of success' (COS) was developed by Newendorp back in 1975 in his publication "Decision analysis for petroleum exploration" as a tool to rank prospects being considered for drilling. And the book is a mandatory primer for all petroleum explorationists.
Newendorp has been quoted as saying he never intended it to be a tool to provide an exact probability of a discovery for the respective prospects being analysed.
As we know the true probability of a hydrocarbon discovery for a prospect is binary. Zero or one. Hydrocarbons are either there or not.
I have used COS as a ranking tool in the past and have had a few 'no-hoper' prospects come in, described before drilling as "what a dog of a prospect. Should have been left tied up at the fence barking!" .
So the COS tool is not infallible but it is a useful ranking method until the old rotary lie detector, the drill, comes along.
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