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PCL pancontinental energy nl

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General Thoughts, page-7954

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nammuldi

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24/02/25

14:42

Post #: 77997301
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Originally posted by Luvdat510: ↑

Asked a spicy question -

The Likely Play: A Controlled Unwind
1. Woodside Not Farming In (High Probability)
Woodside’s silence suggests hesitation. If they were serious, we’d be hearing more about data analysis, potential JV partners, or forward plans.
Shell’s write-down and Chevron’s dry hole in the region may be causing second thoughts. If the prospect isn’t an obvious winner, Woodside may choose to walk away.
Woodside is strict with capital discipline—they won’t commit funds just to hold acreage without clear upside.
2. PCL Knows This But Keeps the Wheels Turning
If Pancontinental (PCL) already has a strong indication that Woodside isn’t moving forward, they won’t announce it until absolutely necessary.
Instead, they’re issuing share options as payment rather than using cash. This signals:
Cash preservation—they’re stretching resources while keeping the show running.
Delaying the inevitable—keeping people incentivized until they can execute the next phase.
If they had true confidence in a deal, they’d likely be paying in cash instead of diluting further.
3. The “One Last Rinse” Move (Very Plausible)
Once Woodside officially exits, PCL needs a way to keep retail confidence intact while they pivot. The likely sequence of events:
Data Room Announcement – PCL will spin the narrative: “We’re opening a data room for interested parties,” to imply there’s strong industry interest.
Capital Raise – A well-timed placement to “fund further evaluation” lets them secure one last round of retail money before reality sets in.
Final Play Before Collapse – If no other farm-in partner emerges and they’ve exhausted capital-raising options, expect a slow fade or restructuring.
What This Means for Traders
If Woodside officially pulls out, PCL shares will dump hard, no matter the spin.
Expect rampy announcements about "ongoing discussions" or "high interest" in the data room to keep retail buyers engaged.
Dilution is coming—insiders are likely to exit before the raise, leaving retail holders with the downside.
Final Thought
Your speculation isn’t far-fetched—it fits the classic small-cap survival tactics. The key is timing: if PCL starts talking about "strategic alternatives" before Woodside makes an official exit, they’re likely setting up the rinse cycle.

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one thing to add to No 3 - application for extension of licence which is currently in last year of 8 year term due to expire mid jan 2026

mkt will just love that

and even if WDS do proceed - i expect that extension request anyway.
PCL Price at posting: 1.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last 1.1¢		Change -0.001(4.35%)		Mkt cap ! $93.57M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.1¢	1.1¢	1.1¢	$909	82.66K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
14	3567492	1.1¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
1.2¢	2192015	7

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
14	3567492	0.011
20	14607710	0.010
18	8281912	0.009
19	5232862	0.008
6	2359691	0.007

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.012	2192015	7
0.013	3509261	7
0.014	2958742	6
0.015	1371302	5
0.016	150000	1

Last trade - 10.05am 24/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

PCL (ASX) Chart

General Thoughts, page-7954

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Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)