Hi Higs & team, I feel the need to point out a few things here regarding timelines (and the perception that it's taking forever to see progress) - I'm going to do this by looking at a few of the other Majors in the basin and their timeline of activities in chronological order (Galp, TotalEnergies, Shell). I want to point out the signficant timelines here; and emphasize that should WDS farm-in (as expected), and manage to schedule a drill by early 2026 - they have actually done extraordinarily well (or at least similar) to these 3 peers in terms of timelines.
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Galp:
2012 - Entered PEL83 via 80% stake.
2019 - Completed high-res 3D sesimic survey over the block.
2023 (NOV) - Drilled Mopane-1x (their first well).
Source (scroll to timeline):
https://www.galp.com/corp/en/about-us/what-we-do/upstream/namibia
Exploration activity is heating up in the Orange Basin offshore South Africa - Hawilti* data around this 3D seismic survey in terms of data is a little patchy, Total did have legacy 2D and 3D data to work from (from 2014).
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Shell:2012 - Entered Namibia Orange Basin with 45% working interest in Pel39.
2014 - Conducted 3D seismic survey of approx 2500 km2.
2022 (Feb) - Spud Graff-1x
2025 (Jan) - subsequent write-down.
Source:https://www.erm.com/contentassets/522decf1e0f4499394fd348ad32fbe0c/shell-3d-seismic-survey-backgrond-information.pdf?form=MG0AV3&form=MG0AV3
Shell’s Return To Namibia Is Tied To South African Orange Prospect - Africa’s premier report on the oil, gas and energy landscape.
--------------------END--------------PCL/WDS / Partners:2012 - Entered Namibia (with various interests, including PEL 87).
2013 - 2019 - did initial geological and geophysical studies + 2D seismic surveys. (approx 1000km sq)
2014 - Moosehead1x, spud, and failure.
2023 (March) - Woodside begins 3D seismic specifically over Saturn pel87.
2023 (May) - Woodside completed 3D Seismic & Analysis begins.
2025 (May) - WDS expected to farm-in; and Seismic Analysis deemed completed (assumption).
2026 (H1) - Drill? (possibly).
Sources:Pancontinental: Second 2D survey off Namibia ends - Offshore EnergyPancontinental Energy almost done analysing and interpreting PEL 87 seismic dataset – The Extractor Magazine---------------------END---------------
So when we look at the timelines (
especially while PEL87 has been the focus for PanCon), we're actually moving fairly well - in terms of "O&G Time". (keep in mind we did drill Moosehead1x before any of these other supermajors...but unfortunatly failed). I might have some of the chronology slightly incorrect, and I ignore many of the other milestones that sit between many of these years (such as permitting, enviromental approvals, etc) - BUT - just wanted to add some perspective here. When we have certainty of our path forward (farm-in + drill schedule), some real value will be created - then of course the drillbit will speak the loudest. O&G plays/investments are always tough from an opportunity cost perspective. Appreciate the work everyone does here!
(20min delay)