PCL pancontinental energy nl

i don't think using the current oil price is a good way to look...

  1. 48 Posts.
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    i don't think using the current oil price is a good way to look at this, WDS (and any other major or super major) will look at it on the basis of a risked potential return on their investment.

    Right now there are two leads that have a postive ROI on a risked drill. Oryx and Hyrax, each of those has probably $120mmUSD of value on a risked basis (534mmbbl x 0.2 GCoS x just a hair above $1USD/bbl IGV).

    Looking at Galps latest figures they Spud Mopane-2A on 2nd December and issued a press release following a logging program on 31st December. For arguments sake we'll say that they spent 30 Days on the well but note it being an appraisal well likely with a more limited scope.

    Mopane-3X was spud on 2nd Jan and the press release released on 25nd Feb that's ~60 Days on location for an exploration well. I see no reason why Oryx or Hyrax would drill substantially quicker than that. Generally the geology (PPFG) in Namibia has been discussed as being relatively favourable so I don't think there's much room to whittle that down especially not with a logging program.

    Therefore, just on the drill cost at a $1.2mmUSD/day spread rate that's $72mmUSD. Add onto that a few million in mobilisation, engineering and other costs and you're at a $90-100mmUSD drilling budget for a single well.

    Most majors are going to require a minimum IRR of 10% for an investment so we're back to a point I've made previously where I think a success case for PCL now is difficult short of massive loss of ownership. The economics of an exploration well don't stack up if the operator has less than 70% (preferably 80%).

    The only outlier to that is a smaller than WDS bigger than PCL operator with a decent budget wants to take a punt on it and forms either a different view of the resource, GCoS or has other reasons to take a more marginal bet on the exploration.
 
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