if i were to discover the stock today (oh boy, do I wish I did), I would look at it this way. I like to stack probabilities as per my best guesses/assessment.
1st layer PCL finds a partner in a timely manner → 50% chance they don't, share goes to 0 → 50% chance
2nd layer First drill dry, share goes to 0 → 70% chance oil found as expected, share ulimately goes to 0.15 → 30% chance
so share "value" for me today = 50% x 30% x 0.15 = 0.0225 > 0.0075 = current price → encourages me to keep
could be more sophisticated (first drill, second drill etc.0 but I like to look at it simplistically just to make sure i'm not going totally wrong.
Of course this is in no way predictive but for me it's a way to make sure my action (buy/sell/hold) is consistent with my sentiment as expressed by the % I use.
PCL Price at posting:
0.7¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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