I do like the confidence, and I hope you are right, but I offer the following:
I do not believe it nonsense to think Woodside haven't been analysing data for months already. Note that the processing is not conducted in-house by Woodside. Processing is contracted out to specialist processing companies. Woodside will of course have their processing experts involved, overseeing the processing, but these are not the same people that interpret the data. You might get some brute stacks out or some test lines early, but these are only very basic 2D lines to confirm the processing flows and inputs are suitable. I think this is the data that PCL have discussed previously(?). The fast-track data is the first data that will be available for interpretation by the geotechnical team; it is not due out until August. This is when the real work will start. Unfortunately, however, this is not a complete dataset. The bits that management will want to see is the attribute work, the stuff that boosts the Chance of Success factor, and this won't be available until November.
So, I do indeed believe they would fart about for at least 9-12 months to get that final dataset, identify and describe leads and prospects, peer-review these, rank them and then finalise drill locations. It's a lengthy process. Rig selection, negotiations and contracting will happen in parallel, but for the trigger to be pulled on that, they will need confidence that they will be drilling. They will want to see some proof in the final dataset before signature.
If we look across our border to Chevron's PEL90, their 3D is of similar size and is months ahead of PCL's and they are yet to sign a rig contract. Likewise, they are yet to enter the next exploration term. Both Chevron and Woodside have time to interpret their respective 3Ds to decide whether to enter the next term. They are not going to rush a $50-$100m decision. Although, having said all that, I believe that both will enter their respective next exploration periods, just that drilling will not take place until late 2024.
BTW, Woodside although a pretty big company, are the smallest of the players in the area, with Shell, Total and Chevron all far bigger. If it comes to getting what one wants, Woodside is at the back of that pack.
Very much believe I could be wrong and hope that I am.
Enjoy your posts too.
oooxxx.
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