As we get close to the end of November it's useful to look at...

As we get close to the end of November it's useful to look at some key upcoming activities and their placement on a potential timeline as its possible that December 2023 is shaping up to be the start of a potentially busy period for PCL and WDS.

1. We know that the application for the extension of the petroleum exploration license 87 was submitted to the Namibia MME in October 23 in person.

Given the mandatory requirement for a drill is part of the extension, it would be entirely reasonable for the likely JV partner WDS to be at that meeting to satisfy MME that a drill would indeed happen as required.

This would also be an opportunity for MME to explain to the JV partners that taking their time to drill is not an option that would be tolerated, given the scale of the activity in the Orange Basin, the results to date, and the impact this will have on Namibia.

2. We also know that WDS have already received the fast tracked Time Migration dataset and are now waiting on the fast tracked Depth Migration dataset which is likely to be delivered December 23.

3. Lastly we know WDS have their next board meeting early December sometime around the 10th.

When could we expect the official announcement that WDS have formally exercised the farm in option with PCL?

It is possible that shortly after the Woodside board meeting they will announce the farm in with PCL, and then we could expect the PCL share price to react sharply to that news.

How could Woodside to be in a position to move this project forward quickly?

If you cast back to June 2022 when BHP and WDS merged their petroleum assets, it gave WDS access to the Houston based BHP petroleum exploration experts, which WDS did not have within its organisation at that time.

It is likely they would now probably have lead on this for WDS, putting WDS in an excellent position to push forward this project quickly, rather than relying on external consultants with their work then having to be checked internally, all very time consuming as opposed to going through the process in-house.

In other words its possible the Houston team have autonomous lead on this project now.

BHP Chief Executive Officer, Mike Henry said: “The merger of our petroleum assets with Woodside creates a global energy company with the scale and opportunity to help supply the energy needed for global growth and development ..."

I am quietly optimistic they may even now have appointed an in-country manager and a possibly a dedicated team to support him / her as well as having a rig in mind for the drill.

So with all that in mind and placing it into a timeline, it could look something like this:



With the PCL AGM coming up next week there will be pressure on PCL to reveal some of the analysis of the fast tracked results to date and where they are with WDS.

There should be some clues for us to analyze from the AGM and the Q&A after.

The size of the prize?

The Euroz Hartley prospective resource table has the top end being 7.8B (if Saturn was a single oil trap, based on the leads from the 2D survey)



However a simple non-technical extrapolation based on date from the start of this year in the southern oil discoveries produces the following:



The latest results achieved to date to the south of PEL87 have been remarkable and provide significant encouragement for the potential size of the Saturn resource.

What could the Share Price potentially be at 15 Billion Barrels of Oil?



Obviously these would not be on discovery but a long term fully developed Saturn oil field in production.

Of course the above assumes that PCL would still retain 20% of PEL87 which is an issue with many potential outcomes and probable worth a decent post of its own.

Share price on discovery would probably be a small fraction of the above.

Keen to hear feedback, and of course these are my thoughts only, so do your own research before making decisions.

CS30