Production downgrade looks clearly linked to the weather. We are...

Production downgrade looks clearly linked to the weather. We are coming out of an La Nina and heading into an El Nino. Hence I view weather as a temporary factor. I did take a nibble at $4.05. Price reaction did look out of whack, positioning into the report did hope for more e.g. Goldman raised to buy a couple of weeks ago.

Bullish factors:
- Broad underinvestment in capex across many commodities. I want to be positioned here when cycle turns.
- Diversified miner with no iron ore exposure
- Buyback in place
- Low cost producer
- Healthy cash flows and low net debt
- Some of the inflationary factors that are impacting costs seem to be moderating.

Bearish factors:
- Commodity prices still heavily influenced by China. The reopening has seemed to benefited the services sector more than manufacturing / infrastructure.
- Eventual carbon pricing (alumina / aluminum) is intensive.
- Ultimately commodity businesses are cyclical, it might be early in the downgrade cycle