Production downgrade looks clearly linked to the weather. We are coming out of an La Nina and heading into an El Nino. Hence I view weather as a temporary factor. I did take a nibble at $4.05. Price reaction did look out of whack, positioning into the report did hope for more e.g. Goldman raised to buy a couple of weeks ago.
Bullish factors:
- Broad underinvestment in capex across many commodities. I want to be positioned here when cycle turns.
- Diversified miner with no iron ore exposure
- Buyback in place
- Low cost producer
- Healthy cash flows and low net debt
- Some of the inflationary factors that are impacting costs seem to be moderating.
Bearish factors:
- Commodity prices still heavily influenced by China. The reopening has seemed to benefited the services sector more than manufacturing / infrastructure.
- Eventual carbon pricing (alumina / aluminum) is intensive.
- Ultimately commodity businesses are cyclical, it might be early in the downgrade cycle
Production downgrade looks clearly linked to the weather. We are...
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Last
$3.65 |
Change
0.030(0.83%) |
Mkt cap ! $16.53B | |||
| Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
| $3.65 | $3.66 | $3.62 | $47.89M | 13.14M |
Buyers (Bids)
| No. | Vol. | Price($) |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3487 | $3.64 |
Sellers (Offers)
| Price($) | Vol. | No. |
|---|---|---|
| $3.65 | 293790 | 11 |
View Market Depth
| Last trade - 16.10pm 07/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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Last
$3.64 |
Change
0.030 ( 0.76 %) |
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| Open | High | Low | Volume | ||
| $3.65 | $3.66 | $3.63 | 5013746 | ||
| Last updated 15.59pm 07/05/2024 ? | |||||
| S32 (ASX) Chart |