Genesis Minerals raising $450m to buy St Barbara, page-15

The Nick Evans article in the Weekend Australian is a good summary and overview and as a shareholder in both GMD (former DCN) and SBM thought I would put my own thoughts on this renegotiation of the merger out there publically for comments and criticism (also cross-posted on SBM threads for interest sakes as I hold both).

As a GMD shareholder, it is good to see GMD management put together a fair-ish deal to CR at a premium and then issue shares to SBM to keep the thesis of a logical regional consolidation in the Leonora as a possible win-win for both SBM and GMD shareholders given the poor results from SBM's WA assets. Even though the position of SBM is weak I still think it would be too high risk to wait for the administrators to be called in on SBM and try to buy the assets for cents in the dollar as there is the added complication and risk that SBM overseas assets have to be disposed of and there can often be "party poopers" opportunists or spoilers in a competitive situation when buying assets off the administrators. This deal is a realistic revision that mostly looks after GMD shareholders but its still a corporate transaction that does have inherent risk.

As an SBM shareholder obviously, its SBM management + Covid/inflationary effects + Canadian regulator d%^k-headery who have put them in this position, and this deal buys them time and they get to walk away from Gwalia with some cash and GMD shares and have one less distraction to get their s%$t together at either Siimberi and/or their Canadian assets. I can't help but feel that they can pull one of these off, but maybe not both, and thats in full optimism mode, in realistic mode I can see further hurdles and unpleasant bumps in the road ending with the Canadian assets being brought by an unknown future Canadian based gold miner and Simberi by another company if and only once the tailings line and met problems are solved on-site. Disgruntled and dissatisfied shareholders and a free shot by shorters will put downward pressure on the SBM share price until management folds or someone else makes an opportunistic move in the future capitalizing on the weak SBM share price.A post-transaction board spill and wholesale replacement of SBM management would probably be desirable and a share price catalyst given the different company that SBM will be, assuming that this deal all goes through as planned and my predictions come true.

Only have small holdings in both GMD and SBM but could see myself potentially voting yes to this transaction...